Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
430 AM MDT FRI SEP 13 2002

CENTER OF UPPER TROUGH HAS NOT MOVED MUCH SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY
WITH TROUGH AXIS STILL NORTHWEST OF THE 4 CORNERS. MODELS SIMILAR IN
HANGING AXIS BACK AND BRINGING IT ACROSS THE CWA IN TWO PIECES. THE
FIRST ONE TODAY...WHICH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION.
COULD BE AS POTENT AS YESTERDAY. MAIN CONCERN WILL STRAIGHT LINE WIND
POTENTIAL AS MID LAYERS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT. ALSO...HAIL AND
ROTATING SUPERCELLS WILL BE A GREATER THREAT ACROSS THE EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WHEN SURFACE HEATING AND SHEAR
PROFILES ARE MAXIMIZED. CONVECTION SHOULD START OUT FIRST OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD EAST AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOW IN MIXING OUT. WOULD SUSPECT SW ZONES TO
HAVE THE LOWEST POPS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE AS WE GO NORTH AND EAST.
TEMPS TODAY A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE INITIAL TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS THROUGH LOWERING HEIGHTS FROM YESTERDAY. SOUTH AND EAST
SHOULD SEE SIMILAR TEMPS AS WHAT WAS REPORTED ON THU.

THE SECOND SPOKE (MAIN AXIS) SWINGS THROUGH THE 4 CORNERS LATE
TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY TRANSVERSE THE CWA ON SATURDAY. DECENT SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AS MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE FORECAST REGION. ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
(NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST) AND PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE
AN UPSLOPE EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE EAST ON SATURDAY. POST FRONTAL LIGHT
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS COULD BE A WIDESPREAD LOW POP EVENT.
NGM/ETA EVEN PUSH MID LEVEL 70 PERCENT MEAN RH CLOSE TO THE DIVIDE
UNDER A DECENT NORTHEAST FLOW. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT.
CCA...UPSLOPE...CLOUDS AND RAIN COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BE LOWER THEN
GUIDANCE. AVN THE COOLEST... SHOWS UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST. WESTERN ZONES WILL ALSO BE
BELOW NORMAL...TEMP WISE...BUT WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS. WILL TREND
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION AND WILL TAKE THE BOGEY IF IT DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE.

UPPER RIDGE IN SIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS CWA ON SUNDAY.
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AVN/GFS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE RIDGE FLATTENING MONDAY AS POTENT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WESTERLIES TAKE HOLD
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

ABQ BE 076/054 072/052 076 49221
SAF BE 074/047 068/045 073 49231
TCC BE 083/057 068/055 075 49353

.ABQ...NONE.

GB

NMZ001>021-026-132300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1100 AM MDT FRI SEP 13 2002

NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN THREAT FROM
THE POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. ELSEWHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY MICROBURST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK...SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN CAN STILL PRODUCE
MAJOR FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS THAT HAVE SUFFERED RECENT LARGE
WILDFIRES. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM FROM
BURNT AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...
IN WESTERN COLFAX COUNTY...MODERATE TO HIGH.
IN NORTHERN SANTA FE AND SOUTHEAST RIO ARRIBA COUNTIES...MODERATE TO
HIGH.
LOS ALAMOS AND SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES...MODERATE
AND IN LINCOLN COUNTY...MODERATE TO HIGH.

WEATHER SYNOPSIS...THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE UNSTABLE TODAY AND THERE
IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO FUEL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS
ENOUGH WIND SHEAR TO ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. AS STORMS BECOME ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...COULD BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

COUNTIES IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WHERE SKYWARN SPOTTERS
MAY BE REQUIRED...
LINCOLN...   SOCORRO...   CATRON...   UNION...      HARDING...
QUAY...      CURRY...     ROOSEVELT...  COLFAX...     MORA...
SAN MIGUEL...  GUADALUPE... TORRANCE... DE BACA...    CHAVES...

THIS OUTLOOK PRODUCT IS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES TO IDENTIFY POTENTIAL
HAZARDOUS OR LIFE THREATENING WEATHER. IT IS NOT INTENDED TO REPLACE
SPECIFIC STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS RELATED TO FLASH FLOODS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO USE PRODUCT WWUS84 KMAF.
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO USE PRODUCT WWUS84 KEPZ.