Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
345 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2002

RADAR SCOPE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY. ABQ
SOUNDING SHOWED AN INCREASE OF 0.20 VERSUS THE PREVIOUS MORNINGS
SOUNDING SO THAT MAY HAVE SOMETHING TO DO WITH IT ALTHOUGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WERE A TAD LOWER THIS MORNING VERSUS YESTERDAY MORNING.
WILL MENTION STRONG STORM WORDING FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN ZONES AS SOME SMALL HAIL MOST LIKELY COMING OUT OF THE
STRONGER CELLS. RAWS SITE NEAR JEMEZ IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS HAD
0.18 OVER A TWO HOUR SPAN SO THE ACTIVITY THERE HAS A MIXTURE OF WET
AND DRY. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH CAPES ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER OF
THE STATE DUE TO HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS. WONDERING WHETHER CLAYTON
IS THAT HIGH WITH UPPER 60S BUT DISTINCT BOUNDARY IN PLACE BETWEEN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS. WILL USE LAST NIGHTS
ACTIVITY FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT BUT UPTICK POPS AND THUNDERSTORM
WORDING. COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...ACTIVITY DIED DOWN QUICLY AFTER
SUN DOWN BUT WILL KEEP IT GOING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WITH ALL
THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL UPTICK THE EAST CANYON
WINDS INTO THE RIO GRANDE DRAINAGE. FEEL IT SHOULD HAPPEN SOONER
WITH A LITTLE MORE GUSTO VS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. FOR THE REST OF THE
NEAR TERM THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GO WITH THE MESO ETA AND ETA SOLUTION
VERSUS THE AVN. FEEL THAT THE MESO ETA HAS BEEN HITTING THE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND LIKE THE ETA MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS. AVN
PRETTY QUICK TO BRING IN THE DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY
VERSUS MESO ETAS MORE MODERATE SOUTH...SOUTHEAST WINDS WHICH MEANS
KEEPING THE MOISTURE IN PLACE. MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN ACROSS THE WEST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THUS THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN IN A COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE MAIN TRIGGER WILL BE THE SURFACE TO
700 MB CONVERGENCE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS SHOWING BASICALLY
A PURE DEFORMATION FIELD ALONG THE DIVIDE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WAVE
OVER TEXAS DRAWS CLOSER TO THE STATE AND THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA
COAST STARTS TO KICK TO THE EAST. WITH SOME POSSIBLE CAPPING ISSUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL TONE DOWN THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION
BUT FIGURE THE OUTFLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS
WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BREAK THE CAP.

THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRIER THAN THE NEAR TERM WITH A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE INTER ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE. THINKING THAT
THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT BUT MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE CUT OFF EJECTION FROM THE SOUTHERN CA
COAST WILL NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY IN ARIZONA. THUS WILL MENTION CHANCE
IN THE MORE PRONED NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH FEW ELSEWHERE. THEN KEEP CHANCE IN THE FAVORABLE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY AS WHETHER MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM AN EASTERLY FLOW
CAN WRAP AROUND THAT UPPER LEVEL HIGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WACHTER

ABQ TT 070/094 068/089 067 52134
SAF TT 060/089 057/084 057 52335
TCC BB 067/088 065/083 066 52112

.ABQ...NONE.