Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
355 PM MDT MON JUL 1 2002

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THE MOST ACTIVITY ALONG THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY SANGRES BUT THE SET UP IS FOR THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO SEE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECTED ALL THE ACTIVITY TO DIE OFF AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES PER THE LAST FEW DAYS TREND. DRY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH BLOWING DUST AND GUSTY WINDS WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. GOOD DOWNPOURS WITH WITH MARBLE SIZED HAIL REPORTED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

OVERALL...EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO INCREASE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
ALL THE MODELS SHOW A EASTERLY MOISTURE PUSH FROM TEXAS. STRONG
CONVERGENCE SCENARIO ALSO SETTING UP WITH THIS PUSH AS WAS SIMILAR
TO A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO. SURFACE TO 700 MB CONVERGENCE LINE SHOWN
TO BE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
TRANSLATING TO TO THE AZ AND NM STATE LINE ON WEDNESDAY. ALL DURING
THIS TIME...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE FROM EAST TO WEST. RATHER
COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE AZ...NM STATE
LINE CAUGHT BETWEEN A CUT OFF LOW OFF THE BAJA...SOUTHERN CA COAST
AND A EASTERLY WAVE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. MODELS PROG BOTH THESE
FEATURES TO MOVE CLOSER TO NM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BELIEVE THE
SUBSIDENCE NARROW DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST WAVE OVER TEXAS
WONT INHIBIT CONVECTION AS SURFACE DEWPOITS WILL BE TOO HIGH. THE
CUT OFF WAVE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP MID TO HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA AS IT SHEARS OUT INTO SOUTHERN CA AND NORTHERN
AZ WITH SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SLOSHING INTO WESTERN NM.
THUS WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...NECESSARY SFC HEATING AND UPSLOPE
MORNING FLOW ALONG THE HIGHLANDS...LOOK FOR CONVECTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO LAST LONGER AND PERHAPS INTO
THE MORNING HOURS AS WAS SEEN A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO. FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD...DONT BELIEVE THE CALIFORNIA WAVE WILL SCOUR OUT THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE EASTERLY PUSH THUS
HAVE TO BELIEVE THAT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO IS IN LINE FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. TOUGH TO
PREDICT HOW MUCH THOUGH AND WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF FEW IN
SOME AREAS AND CHANCE IN THE MOST PRONE AREAS.

MAX TEMPERATURES ALSO SHOWN TO DECREASE WITH THE UPTICK IN OUTFLOW
ACTIVITY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THE RISE IN DEWPOINTS...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATE BUT SUBJECT TO THE UNCERTAINTY TO A
COUPLE WELL PLACED OUTFLOWS IN WHICH TEMPERATURES CAN DECREASE 25 TO
30 DEGREES BETWEEN TWO HOURLY OBSERVATIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN TIER OF THE STATE DUE
TO THE TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND THE CONVERGENCE LINE ON TUESDAY WITH
LOCAL EAST CANYON WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF EVENINGS. WITH INCREASED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TOMORROW AND ABQ BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
MAIN CONVERGENCE LINE FEEL THAT THE CANYON WINDS WILL BE EXTRA
STRONG TUESDAY NIGHT. WACHTER

ABQ BT 069/096 069/092 067 52112
SAF BT 061/092 062/087 060 52123
TCC BB 068/091 066/089 065 52122

.ABQ...NONE.