Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Las Vegas, NV

MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
300 PM PDT FRI AUG 10 2001

SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO
SATURDAY RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY...HOWEVER MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK
ONCE AGAIN INCREASING THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. MOST OF THE STORMS ARE ANCHORED TO THE MOUNTAINS AS THE
FLOW UP TO 500 MB IS RATHER LIGHT. ATMOS IS STILL RATHER UNSTABLE
AND EXPECT THESE STORMS TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
DEWPOINTS AROUND THE REGION STILL IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH TO
THE UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. 12Z MODELS SHOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO MIGRATE FROM SOUTHERN CA INTO NORTHERN AZ BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR SATURDAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...A EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CWA. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN TO MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE TO
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

LOOKING AT THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN CA/NV. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
OF THE CWA...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TO SEE IF A STRONG ENOUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT.

.LAS...NONE.