Severe Thunderstorm Warning 270, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
200 PM MDT MON JUL 30 2001

CURRENT SURFACE MAP HAS BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH WEAK LOW NEAR KD07.  60+ DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW.

AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST
CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA EXPECTED THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WILL BE FIGHTING A STRONG CAP
IN PLACE. LATER TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OVER EASTERN HALF
OF CWA. CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ON THE ETA AND AVN INDICATING MCS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA/NORTHEAST WYOMING IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. THIS
WILL KEEP THE NORTHWEST CLOUDY AND COOLER WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL
WARM UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A ROUND OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 90S. UPPER LEVEL
TROF TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...SO INCLUDED
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. BACK TO SOME RIDGING FOR
MONDAY.

.UNR...NONE.

KC