Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
220 PM MDT MON MAY 28 2001

WK TSRA HAS DEVELOPED OVR THE NRN BLK HLS AND BEARLODGE...THE
FAVORED CONVECTIVE LOCATION GIVEN S LLVL FLOW. EXPECT TO SEE THIS
INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION
A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF WK WAVE WHICH IS
CURRENTLY PRODUCING STORMS OVR SRN WY AND NRN CO. EITHER WAY...MDLS
AGREE WITH SUBSTANTIAL QPF OVR WRN SD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
THIS DUE TO WK CAP...LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW AND WK UPPER WAVE. GIVEN WK
FLOW...STORM MOTION OF RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED PRECIP TO BE TO THE N
LESS THAN 15 KTS. THIS MEANS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT FAR BELOW FF GUIDANCE. RADAR HAS ALREADY ESTIMATED
SMALL POCKET OF 1.5-2 INCHES OF RAIN OVR NW LAWRENCE CO IN THE NRN
BLK HLS. MAY PUT THIS WORDING IN THE ZONES. AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES A
GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR FROM PAC CD FNT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY
WED...DROPPING TEMPS A FEW NOTCHES FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. AFTER
THAT STRONG RIDGING TO OCCUR THIS WEEKEND...MEANING MUCH WARMER
TEMPS. WILL GO ABOVE MEX AND FMR GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED AS MRF
FORECASTING 12 TO 16C 700MB AIR OVR WRN SD BY SAT THUS GUIDANCE
LIKELY WAY TOO LOW. AS WRN US TROF FORMS SUN AND MON...RIDGE GETS
DISPLACED TO THE E OF THE CWA WHICH COULD MEAN A MORE ACTIVE PRECIP
PATERN FOR US AS WK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH IN SW FLOW ALOFT.
BECAUSE OF THAT HAVE PUT A CHC OF TSRA INTO SUN AND MON PDS IN THE
EXTENDED.

.UNR...NONE.
BAILEY