Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2001
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 19, 2001, 4:28 PM MST for Pinal County, Arizona. It was in force for 32 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline the Iowa Environmental Mesonet reconstructed for it; the warning itself named whole counties.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 19, 2001, 4:28 PM MST (23:28 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 19, 2001, 5:00 PM MST
- In force
- 32 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties; the outline is the Mesonet’s reconstruction
County Pinal County, AZ
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 46 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 763 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -182 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1715 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 15 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 39 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 93 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
713 WUUS55 KTWC 192328 SVRTUS AZC021-200000- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 428 PM MST SUN AUG 19 2001 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTY IN ARIZONA * UNTIL 500 PM MST * AT 426 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR ORACLE JUNCTION...OR ABOUT 7 MILES NORTH OF CATALINA...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH. REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN. LAT...LON 3252 11109 3253 11088 3261 11071 3274 11089
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 19, 2:45 PM MST, 1 hour 43 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 19, 2:45 PM MST, 1 hour 43 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 245 PM MST SUN AUG 19 2001 .SYNOPSIS...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS A MORE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BRING SOME DRY AIR INTO THE STATE WITH A DECREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY MIDWEEK. .DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALREADY HAD SOME REPORTS OF HAIL WITH A STORM AROUND SONOITA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS LINGERING OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN LARGE SCALE FEATURE HELPING TRIGGER STORMS TODAY WAS A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER BAJA. EVENTUALLY THE BAJA LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY. ETA MODEL SHOWED SOME DECENT DYNAMICS STILL OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES THROUGH ARIZONA INTO LATE MONDAY. THUS...TOMORROW LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE CUT DOWN DUE TO THE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM TONIGHT STORMS. BY TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NEVADA PROVIDING SOME LIFTING OVER THE STATE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AVN AND MRF CONTINUE TO DRY THE REGION OUT AS A MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. ALWAYS HATE TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF STORMS TOTALLY FROM THE FORECAST THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT THE ODDS APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW AFTER THURSDAY. .TWC...NONE.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 19, 12:03 PM MST, 4 hours 25 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-200700- SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 12 NOON MST SUN AUG 19 2001 .SYNOPSIS...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED SUNSHINE...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER ON OVERNIGHT. .DISCUSSION...A LOT MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING THAN THE PREVIOUS MORNINGS WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LOWER PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO WARM UP TO ITS POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 12 NOON...TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE SATURDAY READINGS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND RANGE FROM JUST OVER AN INCH IN PARTS OF GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES TO OVER 1.50 WEST OF TUCSON. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM OFF THE BAJA COAST NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA SOUTHEAST INTO CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. SOUTHERN ARIZONA LIES IN DIVERGENCE AREA BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. MORNING MODELS SLOWLY MOVE THE BAJA LOW SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND INCREASE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS TONIGHT. WITH THE INCREASED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL WILL NOT MOVE OFF THEM UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS... ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON WEST...AS AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO THEM. THUS WILL GO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FROM TUCSON WEST. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WHICH WILL REDUCE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE BIG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL SLIGHTLY GO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FROM TUCSON WEST. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE GENERALLY TO THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
Special weather statement, Aug 19, 12:05 PM MST, 4 hours 23 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-200700- SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 1205 PM MST SUN AUG 19 2001 .SYNOPSIS...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED SUNSHINE...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER ON OVERNIGHT. .DISCUSSION...A LOT MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING THAN THE PREVIOUS MORNINGS WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LOWER PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO WARM UP TO ITS POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 12 NOON...TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE SATURDAY READINGS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND RANGE FROM JUST OVER AN INCH IN PARTS OF GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES TO OVER 1.50 WEST OF TUCSON. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM OFF THE BAJA COAST NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA SOUTHEAST INTO CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. SOUTHERN ARIZONA LIES IN DIVERGENCE AREA BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. MORNING MODELS SLOWLY MOVE THE BAJA LOW SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND INCREASE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS TONIGHT. WITH THE INCREASED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON WEST...AS AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO THEM. THUS WILL GO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FROM TUCSON WEST. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WHICH WILL REDUCE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE BIG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL SLIGHTLY GO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FROM TUCSON WEST. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE GENERALLY TO THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 1:35 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Santa Cruz | 40 min |
| Aug 19, 2:06 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Cochise | 24 min |
| Aug 19, 3:28 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Santa Cruz | 47 min |
| Aug 19, 3:55 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Santa Cruz | 35 min |
| Aug 19, 4:32 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima, Santa Cruz | 28 min |
| Aug 19, 4:54 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Pinal | 21 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2001Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2001
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.