Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Tucson, AZ

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST MON AUG 13 2001

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AS A LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES INTO THE STATE. THE LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER ARIZONA TONIGHT. THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE REPLACED BY A HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY WHICH WILL DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE AND LEAD TO A FEW LESS STORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.DISCUSSION...KIND OF PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DECENT
HEAVY RAINERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVING INTO VALLEY
LOCATIONS. NOT TO MUCH ORGANIZATION YET AND LOOKS LIKE BEST CELLS
WILL BE WEST OF TUCSON. CANT RULE OUT THAT STORMS WILL END THIS
EVENING AS WE WILL BE IN WEAKENING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH TROF. EVEN REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IS POSSIBLE. THIS
WOULD LEAD ME TO BELIEVE THAT TOMORROW WILL BE TOO WORKED OVER FROM
TONIGHTS STORMS. RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY AND TURNS OUR
WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND DROPS H5 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. ETA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDING IS IMPRESSIVE AND WITH LOW
LEVELS REMAINING VERY MOIST MAY GET A VERY GOOD EVENT OUT OUT OF IT.

DRYER AIR SHOULD FILTER IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL WILL HAVE
STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THOUGH...AND MOISTURE BACK IN AGAIN FOR
THE WEEKEND.

.TWC...NONE.

AZZ019-029>035-140700-

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1155 AM MST MON AUG 13 2001

.SYNOPSIS...FEATURES COMING TOGETHER TO ENHANCE STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. WELL HAVE TO RELY ON PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING FOR A TYPICAL CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING COVERAGE WISE AND AN EMPHASIS ON WETTER THAN NORMAL
STORMS FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITABLE WATER RANGES FROM ABOUT 1.3 INCHES FAR
EAST TO ABOUT 1.9 INCHES WEST...SO PLENTY OF MOISTURE. DEBRIS CLOUD
BROKE UP NICE AND EARLY...SO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED EARLY AND OFTEN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A SOLID ORGANIZATIONAL PROFILE OR FOCUS/TRIGGER (AT LEAST IN OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS FOR TODAY). STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD BE JUST BRISK
ENOUGH TO HELP EASE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS A LITTLE.

WERE LOOKING AT NEAR NORMAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS...A
TYPICAL DAY WHERE ANY GIVEN STORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY SEVERE
CONDITIONS BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD. FLASH FLOODING IS A LITTLE MORE
OF A CONCERN WITH SUCH NICE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS EASTERN PORTIONS...BUT THE HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OUT WEST WILL HELP EVEN THIS NORMAL
EMPHASIS OUT TO INCLUDE WESTERN AREAS AS WELL.

STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE GENERALLY TO THE NORTH AROUND 10 MPH.

MEYER