Severe Thunderstorm Warning 436, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1200 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2001

A BUSY AFTN/EVE BEGINNING TAKING SHAPE...SO WL ISSUE AFD EARLY.

EXPECT SCT TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE
HWY 75 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
AVAIL...SUPERCELLS ARE A LIKELYHOOD...AND HAVE CONTINUED SVR WORDING
IN THE ZNS. GOOD THERMODYNAMICS AND EXCELLENT KINEMATICS SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PUSH EAST OF MUCH OF THE CWFA BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WL CARRY LOWEST POPS IN IN THE
WEST...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN WC/NW AR. WL LET WIND ADVISORY GO WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

AFTER TONIGHT...TOMORROW PROMISES TO BE A STELLAR DAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWFA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NRN ZNS...WHERE WRAP AROUND CAA
CLOUDINESS WL KEEP THINGS RATHER CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
AVN/ECMWF/ETA ARE ALL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT.

WINDS WL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE S...ALLOWING SOME LIMITED MOISTURE TO
ONCE AGAIN RETURN. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHES OUT INTO THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY. ATTM...LOOKS LIKE THE THREAT IS FAIRLY LOW AS MUCH
OF THE FORCING WL BE TO THE N OF THE CWFA...AND WL LEAVE THE POPS
OUT FOR NOW.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST. STRONG CDFNT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWFA ON
MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER AIRMASS CHANGE. DON/T FEEL THAT THIS ONE
WL BE PARTICULARLY COLD AT THE ONSET AS IT IS PAC IN NATURE. A SMALL
PIECE OF POLAR AIR TRIES TO BREAK OFF AND ROCKET DOWN THE PLAINS ON
WED/THU COOLING TEMPS OFF BUT BRINGING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
PCPN. THU/FRI SHOULD BE FAIRLY COOL WITH THE POLAR AIR IN PLACE. WL
KEEP LOW POPS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THERE ARE HINTS OF LGT
OVERRUNNING PCPN MAINLY ACROSS SRN AND ERN ZNS. OTRW...QUIET WX FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE XTND.

FORECAST PACKAGE WL BE RELEASED AROUND 400 PM.

MANNING
FCSTID = 24

...PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
TUL   50  62  38  62 /  40   0   0   0
FSM   54  64  38  65 /  70  10   0   0
MLC   53  64  39  66 /  50  10   0   0
BVO   47  58  36  61 /  40   0   0   0
FYV   49  60  36  60 /  70  10   0   0
BYV   50  59  35  59 /  70  10   0   0
MIO   48  59  36  60 /  60  10   0   0
MKO   52  63  38  64 /  50  10   0   0
F10   52  63  38  64 /  40  10   0   0
HHW   53  65  39  67 /  50  10   0   0

.TSA...
AR...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES
ARZ001>002...ARZ010>011...ARZ019>020...ARZ029.

OK...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES
OKZ049...OKZ053>064...OKZ066>076.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
535 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2001

...UPDATE...

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WAS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  THIS SYSTEM SLOWED ITS PROGRESS TODAY AS IT CONTINUED TO
STRENGTHEN.  HOWEVER IT WILL ACCELERATE EAST TONIGHT AS STRONG
JET STREAM WINDS PUNCH INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
EXTREME WESTERN ARKANSAS BETWEEN 6PM AND 8PM AND QUICKLY BECOME
SEVERE. THE STORMS WILL FORM A LINE AND RACE ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...WITH THE THREAT DIMINISHING AFTER 2AM AS THE LINE EXITS
THE AREA.

VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE STORM
ROTATION AND SUPERCELLS. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND
VERY LARGE HAIL FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE EVENT...WITH THE
THREAT TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS FORM INTO A
LINE.

GIVEN THE FAST WINDS ALOFT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN THE MOST SEVERE STORMS.  PERSONS IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE
WEATHER TONIGHT AND BE READY TO ACT.

STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
652 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2001

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0629 PM    MANSFIELD                 AR   0.75 INCH HAIL
11/23/01   SEBASTIAN                      SPOTTER RPT