Severe Thunderstorm Warning 424, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
200 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2001

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES...WHICH WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TO OUR
NORTH...THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND THIS
FEATURE WILL PUSH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH OKLAHOMA THROUGH
TOMORROW. TO OUR SOUTH...A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE HEADED INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA FROM TEXAS. THESE STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO.
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM JUST WEST OF MIAMI TO TULSA TO
ARDMORE.

WE HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...FOR MUCH OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA FOR CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL AREAS HAVE RECEIVED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
ALREADY...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA...EXCEPT
AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT RADAR TRENDS BEFORE ZONE
ISSUANCE. ETA/AVN BOTH WANT TO CONTINUE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
NIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ONGOING CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY TRICKY. BEHIND
THE FRONT...THE DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY FALLING INTO THE 50S...WHILE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE MUGGY 60+ DEWPOINT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE.
GUIDANCE VALUES ALL OVER THE PLACE OF COURSE...BUT THINK WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH ANYWHERE.

BOTH ETA/AVN SOLUTIONS BRING FRONT THROUGH ALMOST ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z
THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH THIS IDEA...AND KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTH
FOR TOMORROW...AND HAVE A FEW LOW POPS NORTH. GOOD DRY SLOT FORMS AT
500/700MB LAYERS AND THIS MAY HELP CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT OF NORTHERN
ZONES EARLY ON THURSDAY. WILL AIM FOR SOME SUN TOMORROW IN THE
NORTH...AND A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS PLANNED.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL NOT HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WE SHOULD
BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AND SHOULD HAVE A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS FILTER
INTO THE AREA...SO LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S/LOWER 50S FRIDAY
MORNING.

NEXT SHORTWAVE IS OFF THE WEST COAST...BUT UPPER LOW IS FORECAST BY
THE EXTENDED MODELS TO MOVE TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK BEST FOR POPS...BUT WILL KEEP A
MENTION IN FOR SATURDAY AS TROUGH AXIS IS NOT EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL
00Z SUNDAY.

FCSTID = 06
TUL   60  71  49  71 /  100  20  10  30
FSM   65  72  51  75 /  100  60  10  30
MLC   65  72  52  73 /  100  50  10  30
BVO   57  70  48  70 /  30   10  10  30
FYV   62  70  47  73 /  80   30  10  20
BYV   62  70  47  71 /  80   30  10  20
MIO   57  70  48  70 /  70   20  10  20
MKO   65  72  52  71 /  100  40  10  20
F10   60  71  49  72 /  100  50  10  20
HHW   67  72  53  74 /  100  50  10  30

.TSA...
AR...FFA THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ZONES ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

OK...FFA THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ZONES OKZ056>058-060>076.

TAYLOR

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
210 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2001

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
HAVE ALLOWED THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO BECOME
UNSTABLE.  AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THIS UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH SOME PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS DESTABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.  A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE SOUTH
AND CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.  IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SAME AREA.
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC WEDNESDAY

AREA 1...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...100
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...90
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...30

THREAT AREAS DEFINE GREATEST RISK.  PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO DAMAGE
AND OR GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

.OTHER HAZARDS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  SEE OKCFFATUL FOR DETAILS.