Severe Thunderstorm Warning 419, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
354 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2001

ETA DOING RATHER WELL WITH CURRENT PRECIPITATION PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA SO WILL STICK WITH IT FOR THIS PACKAGE.  WINDS ARE GUSTING TO
45 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME SO WILL CONTINUE WIND
ADVISORY INTO TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SECOND ROUND DEVELOPING OUT WEST
MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.  A STORM OR TWO MAY REMAIN SEVERE WITH
THIS LINE TONIGHT BUT THINK CURRENT CONVECTION WILL HELP STABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR A BIT.  HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

EXTENDED LOOKS IN SHAPE STILL WITH NEXT CHANCE OF POPS ON FRIDAY AND
WILL KEEP REMAINDER OF EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW.

HOWIESON
FCSTID = 44

...PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
TUL   65  73  54  68 /  50  90  40  10
FSM   64  75  60  67 /  60  80  70  10
MLC   67  76  58  68 /  40  90  70  10
BVO   61  68  50  68 /  40  90  40  10
FYV   62  72  57  64 /  60  80  70  10
BYV   62  72  57  64 /  60  80  70  10
MIO   61  69  53  66 /  50  90  50  10
MKO   65  73  54  68 /  50  90  40  10
F10   65  73  54  68 /  50  90  40  10
HHW   69  77  60  70 /  30  80  70  10

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES OKZ054>068...OKZ070>071.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
136 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR WITH THESE
STORMS.  THE GREATER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE TONIGHT AS A
LINE OF STORMS SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL AS WELL.  THIS
LINE OF STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND 9PM AND
CONTINUE ON SOUTHEAST AND EAST...SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE LINE OF STORMS WILL TEND
TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AFTER 8PM AND AFTER 11PM IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT ACTIVITY IS LIMITING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS
SHOWER AND STORM AREA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AS IS SPREADS THROUGH THE REGION.  MARGINAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS SUGGESTS
THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO AN ISOLATED OCCURANCE OF
DIME OR NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT LINE OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING FROM KANSAS INTO WEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  A
PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR TO THE WEST WERE
GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS ALONG WITH IMPROVING WIND SHEAR.  THESE
STORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TONIGHT.  WHILE WIND PROFILES WILL IMPROVE TO SUPPORT ROTATING
STORMS...THE EXPECTED LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LINEAR NATURE OF THE
FORECAST STORM TYPE SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND.  THE
LINE OF STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER 2AM AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES DURING THE NIGHT.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC WEDNESDAY

AREA 1...WEST OF MCALESTER TO FAYETTEVILLE TO EUREKA SPRINGS LINE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...100
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...75
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...35

THREAT AREAS DEFINE GREATEST RISK.  PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO DAMAGE
AND OR GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

.OTHER HAZARDS...
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TODAY.  SEE
OKCNPWTUL FOR DETAILS.