Severe Thunderstorm Warning 406, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
345 PM CDT SAT SEP 8 2001

ELEVATED ACTIVITY FIRING IN VICINITY OF SHALLOW SFC BOUNDARY IN AN
AREA WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE ABOVE THE CLOUDY COOL
LAYER.  EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH AND WEST
TONIGHT AS A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FA FROM CO/KS.

HIGH PWS(NEAR 2.00)...COMBINED WITH AMPLE 925-850 FLOW LIFTING
OVER THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULTING IN
TRAINING ECHOES  AM CONCERNED ABOUT A HEAVY RAIN SITUATION SETTING
UP OVER SE OK/NW AR. FFG 3 HR VALUES HOWEVER REMAIN HIGH OVER THE
AREA IN QUESTION...SO AFTER COORD. WITH OUN HAVE DECIDED TO LET IT
GO FOR NOW.

SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SWEEP MOISTURE EAST
OF THE ENTIRE FA BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER. WILL
PROBABLY CONFINE POPS TO A MORNING WORDING...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
RESULT IN RELATIVELY CHILLY READINGS NOT SEEN IN SOME TIME OVER THE
AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG
IN AREAS THAT WERE HIT BY THIS WEEKENDS RAIN BY MONDAY MORNING.

IN THE EXTENDED...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING BACK IN  THROUGH OUT
NEXT WEEK...WITH ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE NRN U.S WILL KEEP
EXTENDED PRETTY MUCH AS IS AND ADD A WARM AND DRY DAY 7 AS
WELL.

FCSTID = 23

.PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
TUL   65  79  55  83 /  90  20   0   0
FSM   68  80  55  84 /  90  60   0   0
MLC   66  80  54  85 /  90  30   0   0
BVO   63  78  51  82 /  90  20   0   0
FYV   65  73  50  78 /  90  60   0   0
BYV   65  73  50  78 /  90  60   0   0
MIO   64  74  52  79 /  90  50   0   0
MKO   65  79  55  83 /  90  20   0   0
F10   65  79  55  83 /  90  20   0   0
HHW   66  81  56  85 /  90  30   0   0

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT SAT SEP 8 2001

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE BOUNDARY HAD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
DEFINED OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA FROM NORTH OF ARDMORE TO SOUTH OF
MCALESTER.  FROM THERE THE BOUNDARY REMAINS RATHER ILL-DEFINED AS IT
SNAKES ITS WAY INTO WESTERN MISSOURI.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE
THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.  LATER TONIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS.

A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WINDS OF UP TO
70 MILES AN HOUR POSSIBLE.  HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BECOME A PROBLEM
OVERNIGHT AS THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRACK ACROSS THE SAME AREAS.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS WILL LIKELY
REQUIRE ACTIVATION AGAIN LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
SINCE THIS MORNING AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR ARDMORE
TO SOUTH OF MCALESTER.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER HAS THUS FAR
LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...BUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TO BECOME SEVERE.  LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

LATER TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE
AREA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS.
ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO THE EARLY NIGHTTIME
HOURS...THEN THE MAIN EMPHASIS WILL SHIFT FROM SEVERE WEATHER TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AS THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS THE SAME AREAS
REPEATEDLY.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY

THREAT AREA 1...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...100
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...80
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...40

THREAT AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO DAMAGE
AND/OR GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
104 PM CDT SAT SEP 08 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0655 PM    PAWNEE                    OK    WIND DAMAGE
09/07/01   PAWNEE                          TREE BLOWN DOWN AND
                                           POWER POLES DOWN. RPTD
                                           BY PD.

1035 PM    TAHLEQUAH                 OK    WIND DAMAGE
09/07/01   CHEROKEE                        NUMEROUS TREES BLOWN
                                           DOWN. RPTD BY S.O.

1130 PM    10 W STIGLER              OK    WIND DAMAGE
09/07/01   HASKELL                         LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN.
                                           RPTD BY S.O.

1135 PM    3 S STILWELL              OK    60 MPH TSTM GUST
09/07/01   ADAIR                           RPTD BY S.O.

1255 AM    COUNTY WIDE               AR    WIND DAMAGE
09/08/01   FRANKLIN                        TREES BLOWN DOWN. RPTD
                                           BY S.O.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
108 PM CDT SAT SEP 08 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1110 PM    GOWEN                     OK    60 MPH TSTM GUST
09/07/01   PITTSBURG                       RPTD BY P.O.

1115 PM    KIOWA                     OK    WIND DAMAGE
09/07/01   PITTSBURG                       TRAILER HOUSE BLOWN
                                           OVER. RPTD BY LATIMER
                                           CO S.O.

1245 AM    COUNTY WIDE               AR    WIND DAMAGE
09/08/01   WASHINGTON                      TREES AND POWER PLOES
                                           DOWN. RPTD BY S.O.

0115 AM    COUNTY WIDE               AR    WIND DAMAGE
09/08/01   MADISON                         LARGE TREES BLOWN DOWN.
                                           RPTD BY S.O.

0125 AM    COUNTY WIDE               AR    WIND DAMAGE
09/08/01   CARROLL                         TREES AND POWER POLES
                                           DOWN. RPTD BY S.O.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
111 PM CDT SAT SEP 08 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0845 PM    TALALA                    OK    70 MPH TSTM GUST
09/07/01   ROGERS                          RPTD BY PD.

0900 PM    WELCH                     OK    WIND DAMAGE
09/07/01   CRAIG                           TREE BLOWN DOWN. RPTD
                                           BY P.O.

0915 PM    COWETA                    OK    WIND DAMAGE
09/07/01   WAGONER                         TREES BLOWN DOWN. RPTD
                                           BY SPOTTER.

1115 PM    EUFAULA                   OK    60 MPH TSTM GUST
09/07/01   MCINTOSH                        RPTD BY LOCAL RADIO
                                           STATION.

1145 PM    SILOAM SPGS               AR    WIND DAMAGE
09/07/01   BENTON                          SEVERAL LARGE TREES
                                           DOWN. RPTD BY S.O.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
123 PM CDT SAT SEP 08 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0920 PM    OKEMAH                    OK    WIND DAMAGE
09/07/01   OKFUSKEE                        UTILITY BARNS DAMAGES
                                           ALONG WITH TREES AND
                                           POWER POLES. RPTD BY EM.

1000 PM    WAGONER                   OK    60 MPH TSTM GUST
09/07/01   WAGONER                         RPTD BY S.O.

1010 PM    22 W EUFAULA              OK    75 MPH TSTM GUST
09/07/01   MCINTOSH                        RPTD BY TOLL GATE STAFF.

1015 PM    2 N MUSKOGEE              OK    WIND DAMAGE
09/07/01   MUSKOGEE                        LARGE BILLBOARD SIGN
                                           BLOWN DOWN. RPTD BY S.O.

1120 PM    MARBLE CITY               OK    WIND DAMAGE
09/07/01   SEQUOYAH                        LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN.
                                           RPTD BY PUBLIC.

1200 AM    MC CURTAIN                OK    60 MPH TSTM GUST
09/08/01   HASKELL                         RPTD BY NWS COOP OBSVR.

1220 AM    PANAMA                    OK    WIND DAMAGE
09/08/01   LE FLORE                        LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN.
                                           RPTD BY S.O.

1230 AM    COUNTY WIDE               AR    WIND DAMAGE
09/08/01   CARROLL                         LARGE TREES BLOWN DOWN.
                                           RPTD BY S.O.

1245 AM    COUNTY WIDE               AR    WIND DAMAGE
09/08/01   MADISON                         TREES BLOWN DOWN. RPTD
                                           BY S.O.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
129 PM CDT SAT SEP 08 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0915 PM    WELCH                     OK    60 MPH TSTM GUST
09/07/01   CRAIG                           RPTD BY SPOTTER.

0930 PM    MIAMI                     OK    WIND DAMAGE
09/07/01   OTTAWA                          TREES BLOWN DOWN RPTD
                                           BY WELCH P.O.

1030 PM    COUNCIL HILL              OK    .75 INCH HAIL
09/07/01   MUSKOGEE                        RPTD BY P.O.

1035 PM    CHECOTAH                  OK    60 MPH TSTM GUST
09/07/01   MCINTOSH                        RPTD BY PD.

1105 PM    OKAY                      OK    .75 INCH HAIL
09/07/01   WAGONER                         RPTD BY STATE PARK
                                           OFFICIAL.

1250 AM    WELCH                     OK    .75 INCH HAIL
09/08/01   CRAIG                           RPTD BY P.O.