Severe Thunderstorm Warning 345, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
345 PM CDT SAT AUG 25 2001

WEAK SURFACE TROF HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL NORTH OF THE STATE LINE.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS BEING DELAYED BY SUBSIDENCE AND RATHER
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES PER 12Z NORMAN SOUNDING AND ANY
DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED.

STRONGER LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND EXPECT TO
SEE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INCREASE AFTER DARK. INITIAL ACTIVITY
LIKELY TO BE IN FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH A
TENDENCY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BACKBUILD FURTHER WEST INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH TIME. SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF ACTIVITY WILL
BE SLOW SO WILL NEED TO KEEP POPS GOING INTO SUNDAY IN ALL BUT
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION...THE SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT IS
NOT OVERLY HIGH GIVEN THE WEAK WIND FIELDS. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE PUSHMA-CHOCTAW REGION OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR THE RED RIVER BUT LITTLE OR NO
COOLING WILL BE SEEN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. CLOUD COVER SUNDAY MAY
INHIBIT TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS IF IT IS TOO EXTENSIVE BUT
WILL COUNT ON ENOUGH BREAKS TO WARM READINGS INTO THE 90S.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE HOT AND DRY BUT THERE ARE SIGNS THAT
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON MAY BE POISED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ABOUT FRIDAY AS STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD ALLOW THIS FRONT TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA.
WILL ADD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND COOL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BUT GUIDANCE
MAXIMUMS CONTINUE TO RUN A CATEGORY OR TWO TOO COOL.

FCSTID = 5
TUL   71  96  69  97 /  40  10   0   0
FSM   73  95  70  96 /  40  30  10   0
MLC   73  95  68  96 /  40  30  10   0
BVO   68  95  65  97 /  30  10   0   0
FYV   66  90  60  91 /  50  20   0   0
BYV   66  90  60  91 /  50  20   0   0
MIO   68  91  64  93 /  50  10   0   0
MKO   72  96  68  97 /  50  20  10   0
F10   71  96  68  97 /  40  10   0   0
HHW   74  95  70  96 /  30  40  20  10

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

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