Severe Thunderstorm Warning 269, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
310 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2001

MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THIS
AFTERNOON.  MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM DRIFTING
SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO TX OVER THE WEEKEND.  HOWEVER...MODELS
DO NOT AGREE ON WEAK INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND
THIS SYSTEM...THUS MODEL QPF FIELDS SEEM TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE.
WILL GENERALLY JUST BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE.

COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE STEEP LAPSE RATES AT TIME OF MAX HEATING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY.  WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED.

NOCTURNAL STORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE (SIMILAR TO THOSE THAT
FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING) AS LOW LEVEL JET COMES INTO PLAY LATE
TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS EXPECTED.
TOUGH TO PINPOINT SPECIFIC AREAS...AND FFG VALUES CURRENTLY RATHER
HIGH...SO WILL NOT NEED ANY KIND OF WATCH AT THIS POINT.  SOMETHING
TO CONSIDER LATER ON THOUGH AS SITUATION PLAYS OUT.

WILL GENERALLY FORECAST PERSISTENCE FOR MINS THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS...BUT WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF FOR MAX TEMPS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING EACH DAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN A DRY FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FCSTID = 4
TUL   68  86  67  86 /  30  40  40  30
FSM   68  85  67  86 /  30  40  40  30
MLC   67  87  67  87 /  30  40  40  30
BVO   63  86  64  86 /  30  40  40  30
FYV   63  81  62  82 /  30  40  40  30
BYV   63  81  62  82 /  30  40  40  30
MIO   64  85  64  85 /  30  40  40  30
MKO   68  86  67  86 /  30  40  40  30
F10   68  86  67  86 /  30  40  40  30
HHW   67  88  67  88 /  30  40  40  30

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1222 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2001

DELAYED FROM TUESDAY JUNE 26...

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0455 PM    1 E BALDWIN               AR    WIND DAMAGE
06/26/01   WASHINGTON                      SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND
                                           LARGE LIMBS DOWN (PUBLIC)

0455 PM    1 N BAL8DWIN               AR    .88 INCH HAIL
06/26/01   WASHINGTON                      (PUBLIC RPT)

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
115 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2001

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO MISSOURI BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS ALONG WITH WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES WILL MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE AND
CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IN ADDITION...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH SMALL
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DISCUSSION...
COOL UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE COMBINED WITH WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
PRODUCE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH CAPE
VALUES IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES TO -8
DEGREES C...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.  IN ADDITION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAS DEVELOPED AND HAS MOVED INTO PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  THIS BOUNDARY MAY ALSO HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.  DUE TO THE SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS
...LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1100 UTC THURSDAY
AREA 1...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...30
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...40
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...10

THREAT AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO DAMAGE
AND/OR GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT:WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
248 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1242 PM    BLUFF                     OK    .75 INCH HAIL
06/27/01   CHOCTAW                         PUBLIC REPORT

0246 PM    FORUM                     AR    1 INCH HAIL
06/27/01   MADISON                         SHERIFF REPORT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
319 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0256 PM    9 NW SCIPIO               OK    .75 INCH HAIL
06/27/01   PITTSBURG                       THERE WAS ALSO TREE
                                           LIMBS BLOWN DOWN.
                                           [PUBLIC RPT]