Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
330 PM CST WED FEB 21 2001

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. SOME OF THESE
STORMS ARE PRODUCING HAIL. WE EVEN HAVE HAD A REPORT OF SEVERE HAIL
IN BENTON COUNTY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRYING/SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAKING GOOD PROGRESS ACROSS OKLAHOMA.
MODELS DON/T SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE SPEED OF THE WAVE...SO THINK
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AND
MAINLY BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES...BORDERING KANSAS...SO WILL INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF
FZRA OR SLEET IN THESE ZONES TONIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
ARKANSAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WHILE THE PRECIPITATION
MOVES THROUGH...SO EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN...RATHER THAN FREEZING
RAIN. NO ADVISORIES PLANNED ANYWHERE...GIVEN THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BEFORE TEMPS HAVE GONE BELOW FREEZING. WILL
INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL ZONES...GIVEN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY.

850MB COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT...BUT BY THE
TIME THE REALLY COLD AIR GETS IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT THURSDAY...MAKING FOR A PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. FRIDAY WILL WARM UP...AS UPPER FLOW TURNS TO
THE SOUTHWEST. POTENT UPPER SYSTEM ON WEST COAST...WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE REGION DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S BY SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR LIKELY...WITH PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY.

FCSTID = 6

TUL ET 031/053 042/060 055 063-1
FSM ET 036/057 043/061 055 06401
MLC ET 035/057 046/063 056 063-2
BVO ET 028/052 040/059 054 061-2
FYV ET 029/052 039/058 054 0650-1
BYV ET 028/050 038/057 053 064-1
MIO ET 027/052 036/056 054 061-2
MKO ET 031/053 042/061 056 063-1
F10 ET 035/055 043/060 055 063-2
HHW ET 039/060 048/065 060 063-2=

.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

TAYLOR

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1230 PM CST WED FEB 21 2001

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
   MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WARM AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE
BOUNDARY...GENERATING LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH THE TRACK AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER SYSTEM PLACES NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN A
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. AREAL COVERAGE
OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN
NATURE.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVES OUT
OF THE PACIFIC COAST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

.OTHER HAZARDS...
SOME OF THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE KANSAS BORDER COUNTIES. ANY LIGHT ICING THAT
OCCURS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FREESTANDING OBJECTS...BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.