Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
245 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2001

UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER MN/WI THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT WOBBLES OVER THE
MIDWEST.  COLDER AIR ALOFT HAS LED TO SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS AS
CLOSE AS SOUTHWEST MO THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY SEE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL BE DROPPING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT.  SATL ALSO SHOWING AN IMPULSE OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS
GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT RATHER THAN CONFINE TO JUST THIS EVENING.
WITH UPPER SYSTEM WOBBLING A LITTLE CLOSER FOR THURSDAY WILL ALSO
KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND.
PROBABLY BETTER CHANCES IN FAR NORTHEAST AREAS.

SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PART OF THE
FORECAST WITH A GENERALLY DRY WEEKEND...THEN AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIP BY MEMORIAL DAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

COOLER TEMPS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY...THEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
MODERATE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

FCSTID = 4
TUL   49  70  46  74 /  20  20  10  10
FSM   50  70  45  74 /  20  20  10  10
MLC   50  70  46  75 /  20  20  10  10
BVO   46  68  43  72 /  20  20  10  10
FYV   44  65  40  68 /  20  20  10  10
BYV   44  65  40  68 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   45  67  42  70 /  20  20  10  10
MKO   49  70  46  74 /  20  20  10  10
F10   49  70  46  74 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   50  70  47  75 /  20  20  10  10

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
745 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2001

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED THIS EVENING ALONG A
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  SOME OF THESE
STORMS HAVE ALREADY REACHED SEVERE LEVELS WITH DIME SIZE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS REPORTED IN CREEK AND OKFUSKEE COUNTIES.  THE THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY BY LATE EVENING...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
THE SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC MONDAY

AREA 1...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...20
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...40
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...5

THREAT AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK.  PROBABILITIES ARE IN
PERCENT.  SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER
WIND/TORNADO DAMAGE AND /OR GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.