Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
315 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2001

TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES WED. NIGHT-THURS NIGHT ARE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEB/FAR NORTHERN KS
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FAR
KS/NE BORDER AREA...ALTHOUGH MAIN LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE TO EXIT
THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA BEFORE 6 PM...SO DONT PLAN TO CARRY ANY
EVENING POP IN THE EASTERN CWA. CU TO THE WEST IN CONVERGENCE ZONE
CONTINUES TO GROW AND WILL ADD WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS ONLY IN THE
NORTHCENTRAL FOR THIS EVENING...BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE TOWARDS
SUNSET. OTHERWISE WILL GO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. A LITTLE MORE
BREEZE IN THE WESTERN CWA OVER THE EAST WITH TEMPS MIDDLE 50S WEST
TO LOWER 50S EAST TONIGHT.

AS TROUGH DEEPENS ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT WINDS AND TEMPS TO INCREASE.
WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH NORTHCENTRAL AND 15 TO 25 OVER THE
EAST...HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S WEST AND SOUTH WITH LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S NORTHEAST CORNER. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD IT AS NEXT
SHORTWAVES ADVANCES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. EXPECT
MAIN PUSH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE EASTWARD BUT INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE FEED IN ZONAL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF
THE CONVECTION TO WORK INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY EASTCENTRAL CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH OF I-70. WILL KEEP POPS ACROSS THE CWA
WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTHCENTRAL.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FORECASTS BOUNDARY POSITIONS VARY BETWEEN
MODELS WITH AVN LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT. FEEL THE
BOUNDARY WITH MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY THEN PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONVECTION ALONG IT. WILL
RAISE TO LIKELY IN NORTHCENTRAL AND SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY PERIOD ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE FRIDAY. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
SOME PRECIP...WILL LOWER THU HIGHS ACROSS NORTHERN CWA TO UPPER 70S
WITH LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.TOP...NONE.