Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
200 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2001

THINGS SURE CHANGE IN 24 HOURS.

00Z H700/500 ANALYSIS SHOWS FALLING HEIGHTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
NEARLY STACKED LOW CENTERS.  THIS WILL BRING A QUICKER EXIT TO THE
PRECIP THAN EARLIER EXPECTED.  THE AVN/NGM SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST
QPF PRESENTATION AT 06Z WITH THE ETA TOO FAR WEST AND TOO HEAVY.

WITH THE INITIAL SURFACE/UPPER LOWS PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY...EXPECT CURRENT PRECIP AND THE DRYLINE TO PUSH ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL ONLY LEAVE AREAS
EAST OF A HIAWATHA-TOPEKA-EMPORIA LINE IN THE RICH MOISTURE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
STILL RUNNING OVER 1 INCH.  BEST OMEGA FORCING APPEARS ALONG OR EAST
OF THE KS-MO BORDER AREAS TOWARD 00Z.  ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE RAINFREE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

WILL PROBABLY BACK OFF TO CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...WITH
LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE.

THE LATER PROBLEM IS THE DEPTH (OR SOUTHERN REACH) OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  PRESENTLY THE NORTHERN LOW
CENTER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA (CLOSER TO
ETA/NGM/NOGAPS POSITION AS OPPOSED TO THE AVN)...WITH A TRAILING
TROF CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.  SUSPECT WEAK ENERGY IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT NOT SOLD
ON ANY PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF THE
UPPER LOW TRACK.

TEMPERATURES...EXPECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES THAN GUIDANCE/CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES.  OUTER PERIOD
GUIDANCE MORE REASONABLE...BUT WILL EDGE TOWARD WARMER NUMBERS FOR
MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS.

ROGERS

.TOP...NONE

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-062100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1218 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.  THE THREAT WOULD
GENERALLY BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SENECA TO WAMEGO TO
COUNCIL GROVE. AREAS EAST OF A HIAWATHA TO TOPEKA TO EMPORIA LINE
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THAT AREA BY
THE DURING AFTERNOON HOURS...AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE
PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...WILL
ACT AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS FRONT
WILL INTERACT WITH AN ATMOSPHERE THAT IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...TO
KEEP INFORMED OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-062100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED WORDING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.  THE THREAT WOULD
GENERALLY BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SENECA TO WAMEGO TO
COUNCIL GROVE. AREAS EAST OF A HIAWATHA TO TOPEKA TO EMPORIA LINE
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THAT AREA DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT
SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...WILL
ACT AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS FRONT
WILL INTERACT WITH AN ATMOSPHERE THAT IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...TO
KEEP INFORMED OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.