Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
230 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2001

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

ETA UNFOLDS A RATHER OMINOUS SCENARIO LATER TODAY.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IS FORECAST TO SURGE
NORTHWARD TODAY...AND INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.  ETA
FORECASTS A WARM FRONT TO SET UP FROM EMPORIA TO OTTAWA BY MIDDAY.
GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE IS FORECAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH CAPES
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG BY BY AFTERNOON.  GOOD SHEAR IS FORECAST ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WITH HELICITIES AROUND 250 M2/S2.  NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT THE ETA IS FORECASTING 850 MB DEW POINTS TO RISE TO AROUND 8C
BY LATE AFTERNOON...GIVING ELEVATED CAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH
GOOD MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION LOOKS TO BE RATHER LOW...SO WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO BREAK
OUT MID AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...AND BY LATE AFTERNOON TO
THE NORTH AS THE MOISTURE SURGES IN.  WILL MENTION POSSIBLE SEVERE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.  COULD
SEE SOME HAIL FROM THE ELEVATED STORMS OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AS WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WILL BE PRETTY LOW.

CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.  PRECIPITATION MAY LAST MOST OF THE
NIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

ETA IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING COLDER AIR SOUTH BEHIND THE
FIRST FRONT ON SUNDAY.  THIS LOOKS A LITTLE OVERDONE...AND WILL
FOLLOW THE SLIGHTLY MILDER AVN SOLUTION.

GENERALLY PREFER THE AVN BASED MAV AND FAN GUIDANCE AS THE NGM/FWC
IS TOO WARM IN THE LATER PERIODS.

.TOP...NONE.

58

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-142100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1208 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.  THE AREA OF
CONCERN WOULD GENERALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
THE ABILENE VICINITY...ACROSS MANHATTAN TO HOLTON VICINITY...WITH
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF AN EMPORIA TO OTTAWA LINE...HAVING A GREATER
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO COULD NOT BE RULED OUT.

A WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WILL
PRODUCE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...TO
KEEP INFORMED OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

$/$
PF