Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
217 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2001

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

WARM ADVECTION WELL UNDERWAY THIS MORNING. PROFILER NETWORK SHOWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS MIGRATING INTO EASTERN KANSAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
CONFINED FURTHER WEST. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN NOSE OF JET AND
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SMALL CLUSTER
OF STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST IN LINE WITH CORFIDI VECTORS.
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND PROFILERS SHOW A SHORTWAVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. ELEVATED STORMS STARTING TO INCREASE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA.

WILL BUMP UP POPS FOR TODAY TO HANDLE THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION AND
THEN DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROF FROM SOUTHERN CANADIAN PLAINS INTO MONTANA AND
EASTERN IDAHO. THIS SYSTEM HANDLED WELL BY MODELS AND WILL SLIDE
SOUTH INTO KANSAS TONIGHT. ETA SUGGESTS MOST OF CWA WILL BE CAPPED
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BEING OVERCOME BY LOWLEVEL FORCING AND DYNAMIC
LIFT AHEAD OF THE DIVING SHORTWAVE. FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF
THE CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 35.
WILL KEEP SOME MORNING POPS GOING IN THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND DRY
ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT TO SEE SOME STRATO CUMULUS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S MORE NEAR AVN/MAV GUIDANCE. TONIGHT TRENDED TOWARD THE
WARMER FWC NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S LOOK GOOD WHICH IS
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FWC AND MAV GUIDANCE. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS
CHILLY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS CURRENT TEMPS IN
LOWER 40 TO MID 40S LOOKS GOOD.

.TOP...NONE.

53

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-221700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
431 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2001

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER THIS MORNING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SYNOPSIS: A WARM FRONT NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER WILL ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING AND COLLIDE WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.