Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
401 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2001

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY AND TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD ARE MAIN CONCERNS.

NARROW BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL GROUP.  PROFILER WINDS CONTINUE TO SHOW
GOOD INFLOW SO ACTIVITY LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.  OTHERWISE
CWA REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE IN THE LOW LAYERS.  SATELLITE SHOWING ANOTHER
IMPULSE EJECTING FROM NEW MEXICO OUT INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.  AT 18Z MODELS
SHOWING LIKELY THIS IMPULSE INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF STATE.  THUS
WILL KEEP LIKELY MENTION ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCE FOR THE DAY ACROSS
THE CWA.  ETA PUSHING CAPES INTO THE 2000 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF CWA
BY THE AFTERNOON HOUR.  ALL MODELS PUSHING SURFACE FRONT NOW
ENTERING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF STATE...NORTH TO ALONG THE NEBRASKA
BORDER BY EVENING.  CONCERNS ARE BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION
AND HOW MUCH THEY WILL HINDER PROGRESS.  GIVEN YESTERDAYS
READING...MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS OK FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...ALSO
GIVEN THAT BOUNDARY WORKS NORTH.  BEYOND 24 HOURS MODELS GOING
SOMEWHAT SEPARATE WAYS...FAVORING MORE THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AVN
ALONG WITH ETA.

GOOD MOISTURE SOURCE CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT ALONG WITH MAIN
WAVE...MID LEVEL OMEGA INCREASING...AFTER COORDINATION UPPED POPS TO
AROUND 80 PERCENT.  STILL MENTIONING SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK A TAD TOO COLD OVER THE
EAST.  WINDS INTO THE AT LEAST THE BREEZY RANGE.

ON WEDNESDAY...MAIN WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST WITH DRY SLOT PUSHING IN
BEHIND.  HAVE POPS MAINLY IN THE AM OVER THE EASTERN CWA.  COULD SEE
SOME WRAP AROUND CONVECTION IN THE NORTH CENTRAL THUS MENTIONED
EARLY MORNING POP AND AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.  H850 MB WIND IN THE
45 TO 60 KT RANGE AND THUS KEPT MENTIONED OF WINDY...WITH VERY WINDY
FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL.  GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK TOO COOL AGAIN GIVEN THE
WESTERLY TRAJECTORY AND KEEP GOING FORECAST OR A TAD WARMER.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH.  WENT MORE WITH
COMPROMISE ON LOWS OR LEANING TO WARMER FAN NUMBERS.

.TOP...NONE
FRANTZ

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-101700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
547 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2001

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT...AS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE.

THE STORMS MAY DIMINISH SOME DURING THE EVENING HOURS BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  A VERY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EMERGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
STATES AND INTERACT WITH THE UNSTABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS.
THESE STORMS WOULD START FIRST OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SPREAD
INTO NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

TAKE TIME NOW TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES FOR HOME...WORK
AND SCHOOL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAKA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR LATER
STATEMENTS ON THIS DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

PF