Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
3 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2001

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS...

WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE CWA IS EDGING SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DONT EXPECT MUCH MOVEMENT WITH
THIS FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WAA PROGRESSING
EASTWARD INTO THE CWA IS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AC WITH CU
FURTHER TO THE WEST IN MAX CONVERGENCE IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

FIRST CONCERN IS WHETHER CAP OVER THE AREA WILL BE BROKEN OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA THIS EVENING AND IF IT DOES WILL
DEVELOPMENT OCCUR BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS AREA OF DEVELOPING
CU ALONG DRYLINE TO THE SOUTHWEST. AT TIME WOULD EXPECT ADDITIONAL
HEATING AND CONTINUED CONVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION TO
GET GOING NEAR THE FRONT AND MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
SUNSET.

WHILE ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP THIS EVENING MAY WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT (MCS) OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. THIS WOULD LIKELY LEAVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. OFFSETTING FACTOR FOR THIS WOULD BE WARMING ALOFT AND
INCREASING CAPPING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WILL KEEP POPS
GOING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH CWA
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY...WILL SEE CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S WITH MONDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST. THIS IS MUCH WARMER THAN
FAN/MAV GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS TOO COOL.

ALTHOUGH STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO BE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.
WILL GO WITH DRY FCST ON MONDAY AS 700 MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE 12-14
DEGREE RANGE KEEPING CAPPING IN PLACE. WILL ADD POPS AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/FRONT SLIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN CWA DURING THE NIGHT.

.TOP...NONE

63

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
631 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....
n
0627 PM    ENTERPRISE                KS    .88 INCH HAIL
06/16/01   DICKINSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
645 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0615 PM    1 S MANHATTAN             KS    .75 INCH HAIL
06/16/01   RILEY

0632 PM    4 SE MANHATTAN            KS    1 INCH HAIL
06/16/01   RILEY

0634 PM    5 W ABILENE               KS    1.75 INCH HAIL
06/16/01   DICKINSON

q