Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
202 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2001

CURRENTLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WELL
UNDERWAY AND ADVANCING WEST. THE WEST COAST BOUNDARY HAS NOT
DEVELOPED YET...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO AS GOOD SURFACE CONTINUES. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING EAST AND WEST COAST BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OVER MY WEST COASTAL
ZONES WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY HIGH AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS...SO WILL
WORD FOR 50% EVENING POPS FROM FROM PASCO SOUTH...AND 30% FURTHER
NORTH WHERE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR STILL RESIDES. AS STATED EARLIER THIS
MORNING RATHER COLD 50H TEMPS ALOFT (-11C) MAY LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

TONIGHT...BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION GOING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND MAY LINGER PAST SUNSET...BEFORE IT
FINALLY BEGINS TO WIND DOWN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING DEW POINTS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHER OVERNIGHT
MINS. GUIDANCE NUMBER ARE CLOSE SO WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM IT.

SHORT TERM...WELL FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH RESPECT TO OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER TN WILL CONTINUE TO
MEANDER WEST-NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH
ASSERTS ITSELF WEST OVER THE EASTERN SEA BOARD AND FL...WITH EAST TO
WEST SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TAKING UP RESIDENCE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST CYCLE. DEEPENING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT INCREASING
MOISTURE LEVELS (PWS APPROACHING 2 BY THURSDAY) INTO THE FA. THIS
MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
POP REGIME FOR MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH THIS IN MIND PLAN TO WORD FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY. FAN/MAV/FWC MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE SO AGAIN A
BLEND WILL BE USED IN MOST LOCATIONS.

EXTENDED (FRI-TUES)...LATEST AVN/MRF CONTINUES WITH MOIST E-SELY FLOW
ACROSS THE FA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER
THAT MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRIER AIR WORKING IT WAY INTO THE
FA FROM THE ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A WESTWARD MOVING TUTT...WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOMEWHAT LOWER POP CHANCES. SEEING THAT THIS IS STILL WAY OUT...
PLAN TO KEEP CURRENT SCATTERED POP WORDING AS IS FOR THE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME. LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGES EXPECTED.

MARINE...DEEP EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
ENTIRE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS DEEP LAYERED
RIDGING SETS UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED...HOWEVER WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. INCREASE IN EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE PINNED TO THE COAST FROM WEDNESDAY ON WHERE BEST
CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION WILL RESIDE.

FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING MOIST EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY WATCHES OR RED FLAGS THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS
TPA TT 073/091 074/091 4646
FMY TT 072/092 073/092 5656

.TBW...NONE.

MCMICHAEL

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-262330-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1100 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2001

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...

AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH GOOD DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES TOWARD INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THE WESTWARD MOVING
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE WEST COAST
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF STORMS OVER INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS
WHERE A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AT THE PRESENT TIME THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...AND POSSIBLY SOME
SMALL HAIL.

RESIDENTS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ALERT
TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES YOUR LOCATION...MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.

MCMICHAEL