Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
902 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2001

CURRENTLY...LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION AFFECTING MY COASTAL ZONES WITH
MORE MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF VIA 88D RETURNS.

REVIEW OF MORNING ROAB DATA SHOWS ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WITH PW'S NOW ABOVE 2". THIS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ALONG WITH SEVERAL
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WHICH
WILL TRANSLATE INTO MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FOR THE FORECAST AREA THE
REST OF THE DAY...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS
TRAINING OF CELLS OCCUR. THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH LIMITED
SURFACE HEATING SHOULD KEEP OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TO A MINIMUM...BUT
AS ALWAYS SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND WILL RE-ADDRESS
IN A LATE MORNING HWO.

BASED ON THINKING ABOVE WILL UPDATE ZONES TO KEEP RAINFALL GOING
RATHER THAN TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR MY COASTAL ZONES...
AND WILL CLEAN UP INTERIOR ZONE WORDING TO REMOVE MORNING SUN. ONLY
OTHER THING TO THINK ABOUT ARE THE MAX TEMPERATURES. WITH LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND PRECIP EXPECTED...I MAY NEED TO TWEAK TEMPS BACK A BIT.
FOR NOW WILL MONITOR TEMP A WHILE LONGER AND MAKE ANY LAST MINUTE
ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED JUST PRIOR TO RELEASING THE MORNING UPDATE.

MARINE PACKAGE LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES EXPECTE1D.

.TBW...NONE.

MCMICHAEL

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-231500-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
500 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2001

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SUNCOAST THIS
MORNING...
...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...

...ALONG THE COAST...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONSHORE BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM...CONTINUING
INLAND THEREAFTER. TORRENTIAL RAIN...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH...STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES.  MINOR FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS EXPECTED WHERE FREQUENT DOWNPOURS OCCUR.

FARTHER SOUTH...STORM TOTALS WILL BE GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR
LESS...THOUGH STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACTING ON AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS FROM ISOLATED
SMALL TORNADOES.

...INLAND...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK TOWARDS INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA BEFORE NOON.  THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS THEY MOVE
INLAND.  HOWEVER...STRONGER CELLS WILL STILL CONTAIN
DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS.

MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
HOWEVER...ONE OR TWO MAY BECOME SEVERE LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

RESIDENTS ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD
KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO SAFETY AT ANY
TIME.

MARINERS...PARTICULARLY FISHERMEN AND RECREATIONAL BOATERS...ARE
URGED TO POSTPONE THEIR TRIPS UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

FULL SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT SPOTTERS
SHOULD REMAIN ATTUNED TO CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

GOLDSMITH