Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
112 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2001

A FAIRLY ACTIVE AFTERNOON UPCOMING...SO WILL KEEP THIS BRIEF.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT THINKING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
WITH THE SHORT TERM FCST HINGING SOMEWHAT ON THE MOVEMENT/STRENGTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL LOW IN NC AND LONGER TERM THE HOPEFUL GENERATION OF
SOME E/SE FLOW.

MODELS ARE SHOWING SIMILAR TRENDS TO WED...THAT IS THE ETA IS
STRONGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL LOW...THE NGM
LOSES IT FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THE AVN MOVES IT ALONG A BIT TOO
QUICK.  WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ETA SOLUTION ONCE AGAIN.

SHORT TERM:
LIGHT STEERING FLOW SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION GOING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...ESP CENTRAL AND S.  THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...BUT INLAND COASTAL COS FROM HILLSBOROUGH S MAY SEE PULSE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG OLD PROPAGATING BOUNDARIES.  WILL CARRY AN EARLY
EVENING PERIOD FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY.

OTHERWISE...THINGS QUIET DOWN QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.  EXPECT SOME
EARLY AM TOWERS NEAR THE COAST AND WILL HANDLE IN MARINE...
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT.  FRI...MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT TOO DIFF
FROM TODAY...WITH LIS NEAR -11 ONCE AGAIN.  ONE DIFF IS STORM
MOTION...WHICH WILL BE A BIT FASTER AND ORIENTED FROM NW TO SE.  SUCH
FLOW COMBINED WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR 18C SHOULD CRANK INLAND TEMPS TO
THE MID 90S.  WILL CONTINUE WITH LESSER PCPN CHANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND HIGHER INLAND.

NW FLOW ESTABLISHES FRI NIGHT...BUT IS ALSO AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AROUND TAIL OF UPPER LOW.  THE COMBINATION MAY ALLOW A BIT MORE
ACTION NEAR THE COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK AND WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCES HERE.  NW-SE STORM MOTION INCREASES SAT AND THIS SHOULD
SCOOT ACTIVITY WELL INLAND...REACHING THE E COAST LATE IN THE DAY.

EXTENDED:
WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY SNEAKS INTO THE CENTRAL CWFA SUN AND PARKS...
LIGHTENING WINDS AND ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS ONCE
AGAIN.  THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT LATE SUN/MON...AND SLOWLY BUILDING
SFC HIGH TO OUR N WILL ESTABLISH AT LEAST A LOW LVL ESE FLOW FOR MID
WEEK.  WILL GO BACK TO AFTN/EVE TSTMS IN THE LATTER EFP WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

MARINE:  QUIET OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING TSTMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FIRE WX:  NO HIGHLIGHTS GIVEN HIGH RH VALUES AND LIGHT WINDS.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
TPA BB 077/093/075/092 1212
FMY BB 074/093/073/093 2322

.TBW...NONE.

88/GOLDSMITH

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-142100-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1100 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2001

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...

COLLIDING SEA BREEZES WILL ACT ON A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  THE THREAT AREA
WILL BE OVER INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THOUGH A
FEW CELLS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD THE COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF TAMPA
BAY...TOWARD EVENING.

STORMS WILL INITIALLY FORM ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE FROM
TAMPA BAY NORTH UNTIL 1 PM.  THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING AND A BRIEF DOWNPOUR.

ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM OVER INTERIOR
COUNTIES.  A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH THE MAIN THREATS.  THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER
HOUR...WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

BOUNDARIES SET OFF BY THESE STORMS WILL ALLOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
TOWARD THE COAST OVER AND SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY AFTER 5 PM. CONDITIONS
SHOULD QUIET DOWN BY SUNSET.

REMEMBER...LIGHTNING KILLS.  WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF
THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT
UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS LATER TODAY.

GOLDSMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
206 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2001

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0130 PM    4 W OXFORD                FL   1 INCH HAIL
06/14/01   SUMTER                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.
                                          EVENT DURAT0ION 6 MINUTES.