Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
220 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2001

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS ALREADY FIRED OFF ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM EASTERN LEE COUNTY NEAR LEIGH ACRES EXTENDING
NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL DESOTO COUNTY NEAR ARCADIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM KMLB
SOUTH PUSHING WEST...WITH OTHER NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES IN THE VICINITY
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND NEAR ONGOING CONVECTION. FURTHER NORTH DRIER
AIR MASS IS ONCE AGAIN INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO FIRE OFF AS SEA/LAKE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACTION TAKE PLACE
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
VENICE TO HAINES CITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE WINDING DOWN A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. ELSEWHERE COASTAL ZONES FROM MANATEE NORTH
SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS DRIER MID LEVEL AND MARINE LAYER STABILITY
IN WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE PREVAILS.

SHORT TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER
WITH RESPECT TO OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
ONGOING WESTERLY FLOW REGIME OF PAST IS ABOUT TO TRANSITION TOWARD A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME (SELY FLOW) REGIME FOR THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK AS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE...WITH THE
SURFACE TO 850MB RIDGE AXIS MOVING NORTH TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PENINSULA. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTH WITH INCREASING PWS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA AS DEEP
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH IS TRANSPORTED NORTH. THE SE-SLY FLOW SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE CLOSER TO COASTAL ZONES THE
NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AND THIS IS WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS ALONG COASTAL
ZONES...TRENDING BACK SLIGHTLY OVER THE INTERIOR. GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE
AGAIN VERY CLOSE AND WILL USE A BLEND IN MOST LOCATIONS.

EXTENDED...DIGGING UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER TN VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE UPPER AND SURFACE
RIDGING BACK TO THE SOUTH BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
TRYING TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN FA ALONG ABOUT FRIDAY WHICH WILL
AGAIN BRING A WESTERLY TYPE FLOW REGIME BACK TO THE FA WITH HIGHEST
POPS SHIFTING BACK TOWARD INTERIOR AND EASTERN MOST ZONES DURING
THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE LIKELY TO STALL OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE N-
CENTRAL PENINSULA AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILD WELL TO THE NORTH. GIVEN
THIS WILL WORD FOR A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED POPS TO
CONTINUE FOR ALL ZONES SAT-SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO-LEVEL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MARINE...SW-WLY FLOW OF PAST WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT EACH
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS NORTH. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPSTREAM FRONT
APPROACHES. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED. WITH A SE-SLY FLOW DEVELOPING WILL WORD FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS ALL LEGS.

FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING RH LEVELS WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS THROUGH MONDAY.

THANKS FOR COORD CALL KMLB.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS
TPA TT 075/090 074/089 0545
FMY TT 074/090 074/090 2545

.TBW...NONE.

MCMICHAEL