Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA  RUSKIN FL
350 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2001

LINE OF TSRA FROM KEATON BEACH EXTENDING SSW INTO THE GULF TO BUOY
42036 IS MAKING GOOD PROGRESS TOWARDS THE CWA WITH A FEW SHRA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN LINE ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. SURFACE AIR
THICK WITH MOISTURE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO PUMP UP LOWER 70
DEWPOINTS ACROSS MOST AREAS IN THE CWA.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS RUN ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE THE
PRECIP A LITTLE AHEAD OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ON RADAR. 06Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 997 LOW IN NORTHERN MS WHICH IS IN THE
RIGHT PLACE BUT A COUPLE MBS DEEPER THAN MODELS SUGGEST. LATEST
PRECIP TIMING SUGGESTS MAIN LINE ENTERING LEVY COUNTY AROUND 10Z...
BAY AREA 13-14Z AND FMY METRO 17-19Z. MAIN LINE HAS DEVELOPED A FEW
BOW ECHOES IN THE GULF OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. KTBW VWP INDICATES
SW WINDS 30KTS INCREASING TO NEAR 50KTS AT 5K FT. EXPECT ANY SEVERE
THREAT TO BE LIMITED TO STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AT THIS TIME. WILL LEAVE
MENTION OF STRONG TSRA AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN ZONES...ESPECIALLY
FARTHER SOUTH AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL FURTHER DESTABLIZE ATMOSPHERE.

RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN FA BY EARLY EVENING...BUT
WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN AND TAIL OF VORT SWINGING THROUGH
TONIGHT...BELIEVE GULF STRATO CU CLOUDS WILL HANG ON THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER AIR IN
MONDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE FREEZE EXTREME NORTH WHICH CAN BE BETTER
DEFINED TOMORROW.

PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS PRETTY TIGHT THROUGH 60H AND WILL BE ON THE
BORDER BETWEEN BREEZY AND WINDY.

MARINE...SEAS ALREADY ABOVE SCA THRESHOLD AND WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...SO WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR ALL AREAS THIS PACKAGE. ALSO
INHERITED A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AS WELL AS
WINDS TURN WESTERLY DURING THE DAY. THE WINDS DONT LOOK STRONG
ENOUGHT TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING...BUT THE COULD BE
SOME MINOR OVERFLOWS AS THE TSRA LINE MOVES IN. GRADIENT TO REMAIN
PRETTY TIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE RELAXING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH SETTLES IN THE GULF.

FIRE...FOR MONDAY...WITH WINDS ABOVE THRESHOLDS AND DRIER AIR
MOVING IN...CURRENT THINKING IS TO PUT NORTHERN COUNTIES NORTH OF
PASCO IN A WATCH.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
TPA TB 077/057 066/042 9100
FMY TB 080/057 068/044 8200

.TBW...SCA FROM BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
       HEAVY SURF ADVISORY BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER
       FIRE WEATHER WATCH HERNANDO CITRUS SUMTER AND LEVY
       MONDAY AFTERNOON.

67/SG

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-041600-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
630 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR LEVY...CITRUS...SUMTER AND HERNANDO
COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM...
...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
FROM THIS LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
DURING THE DAY...BRINGING MUCH COLDER WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND INCREASED LOW AND MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS...WILL PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY STRONG GUSTY
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES...ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES OR WATERSPOUTS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE TIMES OF GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...FROM LEVY TO PASCO
COUNTY...WILL BE FROM 6 AM TO 9 AM. FOR THE TAMPA BAY REGION...THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON. FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF TAMPA AND INTERIOR COUNTIES...THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR STRONG STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 10 AM AND 4 PM.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING TO 25 KNOTS TODAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN
PLACE. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST.
MARINERS AND COASTAL RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR WEATHER
FORECASTS AND NOT VENTURE FROM PORT.

SKYWARN SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED AND ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FORWARD THEIR SEVERE REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN.

ALL RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA PLANNING ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TODAY SHOULD STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

GARRARD