Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
214 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2001

CURRENTLY...WEST COAST SEA BREEZE ALREADY UNDERWAY AND MAKING
INROADS TOWARD INTERIOR LOCATIONS VIA VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 88D RETURNS DEPICTING A FEW SHOWERS ALONG IT.
IN ADDITION THE EAST COAST BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT FROM THE LAKE SOUTH...
BUT FURTHER NORTH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SW-WLY FLOW IS INHIBITING IT AND
WILL LIKELY KEEP IT PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST IN THESE LOCATIONS.
THIS BEING THE CASE WILL LIKELY SEE BEST AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS
OVER MY INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN MOST ZONES WHERE THE BEST BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS TAKE PLACE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE FAR NORTH AND IMMEDIATE WEST COASTAL LOCATIONS. WITH THIS IN
MIND WILL WORD FOR 20% NORTH AND CENTRAL COASTAL ZONES AND 40%
INTERIOR/SOUTHWEST FOR THE EVENING HOURS.

SHORT TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS.
REMNANTS OF BARRY (VORT CENTER) NOW OVER THE LOWER TN/MS VALLEYS IS
PRODG TO DROP SEWD TO CENTRAL GA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WHERE
IT WILL MEANDER AROUND INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE AS WEAK UPPER
TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN SEA BOARD. THE AVN/ETA ARE
SIMILAR WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT THE NGM WANTS TO LIFT THIS FEATURE
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST FAIRLY FAST. SEEING THAT THIS FEATURE IS
EMBEDDED IN A WEAK FLOW...AM INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
AVN/ETA FOR THIS CYCLE WHICH KEEPS A SHEAR AXIS TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE. IN ANY EVENT WITH LITTLE OVERALL MOISTURE CHANGE EXPECTED AND
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING AROUND OF JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE A
CONTINUATION OF DAILY SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE
THE DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS DEPICTED BY MODEL TIME X-
SECTIONS. THIS DRIER AIR MAY KEEP THE OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF
STORMS A BIT LOWER...BUT FEEL MAV POPS ARE TO LOW AND WILL USE A
BLEND OF THE FAN/FWC THIS PACKAGE KEEPING 30-40% COASTAL TO INTERIOR.
GUIDANCE TEMPS AGAIN VERY CLOSE...SO A BLEND WILL BE USED.

EXTENDED...LATEST AVN KEEPS UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN SEA
BOARD WITH SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE SERN GULF STATE AND NORTHERN
PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH PLACEMENT OF SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DURING THE LAST
FEW DAYS WITH SOME MOVING IT NORTH TO NEAR THE CAROLINAS WITH A
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME DEVELOPING WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT
MEANDERING AROUND THE N-CENTRAL PENINSULA RESULTING IN LIGHT SW-WLY
FLOW. SEEING THAT A POSITIVE TILTED UPPER TROUGH IS ADVERTISED BY
MODELS TO BE RESIDING OVER THE ERN SEA BOARD AND NORTHERN GULF AM
INCLINED TO FAVOR MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE
BEST AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS FROM BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OVER MY
INTERIOR AND EASTERN MOST ZONES. WITH PWS REMAINING IN THE 1.5 TO
1.7 RANGE PLAN TO KEEP POPS AT CLIMO-LEVEL...BUT WILL WORD FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON COASTAL...AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTERIOR.

MARINE...LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED NORTHERN LEGS AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH ONSHORE COMPONENT CENTRAL AND SOUTH THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN MORE OF A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH PM SEA BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON. NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED WITH
DELIGHTFUL CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS
TPA BB 076/091 076/092 2323
FMY BB 075/093 075/093 3434

.TBW...NONE.

MCMICHAEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2001

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0247 PM    CAPE CORAL                FL   1 INCH HAIL
08/10/01   LEE                            SEVERAL REPORTS OF
                                          QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
                                          REPORTED BY WBBH TV.

0256 PM    CAPE CORAL                FL   .75 INCH HAIL
08/10/01   LEE                            SEVERAL REPORTS OF DIME
                                          SIZE HAIL. REPORTED BY
                                          LOCAL MEDIA.

0300 PM    CAPE CORAL                FL   WIND DAMAGE
08/10/01   LEE                            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN
                                          WITH 12 HOMES DAMAGED.
                                          REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT. EVENT
                                          DURATION 15 MINUTES.

0410 PM    TEMPLE TERRACE            FL   1.75 INCH HAIL
08/10/01   HILLSBOROUGH                   GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL
                                          ACCUMULATED ON GROUND
                                          AT FOWLER AND 56TH ST.
                                          REPORTED BY WFLA
                                          CHANNEL 8.

0415 PM    TEMPLE TERRACE            FL   .75 INCH HAIL
08/10/01   HILLSBOROUGH                   DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED
                                          AT FLETCHER AND BRUCE
                                          B. DOWNES. REPORTED BY
                                          WTVT FOX 13.. EVENT
                                          DURATION 10 MINUTES.

0430 PM    TEMPLE TERRACE            FL   LIGHTNING
08/10/01   HILLSBOROUGH                   *** 1 DEAD ***
                                          MAN STRUCK BY LIGHTNING
                                          ON THE CAMPUS OF USF.
                                          REPORTED BY MEDIA.