Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
209 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2001

CURRENTLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP DEPICTS WELL DEFINED SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES ALONG BOTH COASTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 88D RETURNS
ALREADY INDICATING A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THEM AND
IT LOOKS LIKE ITS GOING TO BE RATHER ACTIVE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS AS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS TAKE PLACE. WITH THIS IN
MIND PLAN TO CARRY SCATTERED EVENING POPS (30-40% RANGE) ACROSS THE
BOARD IN THE 5 PM PACKAGE.

SHORT TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES THIS CYCLE AND PROG LEFTOVER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
(REMNANTS OF BARRY) NOW OVER THE LOWER TN VALLEY SEWD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL GA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS
DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE. AS THIS OCCURS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NOW OVER THE N-CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL SAG SOUTH TO AROUND THE
LAKE OVER THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING MY NORTHERN FA WITH A SW-WLY FLOW
AND A LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW CENTRAL AND SOUTH. WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN MOISTURE EXPECTED...SCATTERED SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE EACH DAY AND WILL ADVERTISE BETWEEN 30-50%
POPS IN MOST ZONES. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE VERY CLOSE...SO A
BLEND WILL BE USED.

EXTENDED...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. SURFACE RIDGE PROGD
TO MEANDER ABOUT THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES PASS BY TO THE SOUTH. WITH MODEL X-SECTIONS
CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...DAILY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL RULE AND WILL LEAVE
SCATTERED POP MENTION AS IS. LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGES EXPECTED.

MARINE...TRANQUIL WIND/SEA STATES TO CONTINUE IN THE NEAR AND LONG
TERM AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS
TPA BB 077/092 076/091 3435
FMY BB 076/092 075/092 3434

.TBW...NONE.

MCMICHAEL