Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
215 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2001

CURRENTLY...88D SHOWING SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON THE INCREASE FROM
SE TO NW. WEST COAST SEA BREEZE APPEARS TO BE PRETTY WEAK...AN
PINNED CLOSELY TO THE COAST.

---FCST DISC---
SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH AT LEAST THE
SHORT TERM (SAT NIGHT). DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OVER
N FL...WITH ESE FLOW. DON'T SEE ANY MAJOR FLUXATIONS IN DEEP
MOISTURE...BUT ALL GUIDANCE SHOW LOWER POPS (40-50%) ON FRI...
AND EVEN A TAD LOWER ON SAT. THIS RANGE IS ACTUALLY MORE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST 50% POP COASTAL
AREAS AND 40% INLAND FRI...AND THEN ABOUT 10% LOWER ALL AROUND SAT
GIVEN MODELS INDICATING MORE EASTERLY FLOW...WHICH IS USUALLY NOT
AS GOOD FOR COVERAGE AS SE FLOW. TEMPS NEAR CLIMO.

---EXTENDED---
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUN-THURS SEEMS TO HINGE ON VALIDITY OF
SFC WAVE THAT THE AVN/MRF PLACES OVER THE BAHAMAS AROUND TUES.
BEFORE THIS...ANOTHER UPPER TROF TRIES TO DEEPEN OVER THE E U.S
MON...STALLING A WEAK SFC FRONT INTO S GA BY LATE TUES. LOW LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS ESE ON SUN...AND WEAK SOUTHERLY MON. BEYOND MON
BECOMES SUSPECT GIVEN WHETHER A SFC LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS DEVELOPS.
SINCE AVN/MRF TYPICALLY HAS A BIAS TOWARD SPURIOUS SPIN-UP OF SUCH
SYSTEMS...WILL KEEP TUE-THURS GENERIC WITH SCT AFTN/EVENING TSTMS.

---MARINE---
ESE FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED.

PRELIM #S:
TPA 074/090 075/091 4534
FMY 073/091 074/092 4534=

.TBW...NONE

MORALES