Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
237 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2001

CURRENTLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN EXPANDING CU FIELD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 88D RETURNS DEPICT AREAS
OF ONGOING CONVECTION OVER SUMTER AND POLK COUNTIES ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WHICH IS MOVING WESTWARD. OTHER
AREAS OF CONVECTION WERE NOTED OVER HARDEE...DESOTO...CHARLOTTE AND
LEE COUNTIES AS WELL. AS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE MAY BE DELAYED A BIT FROM KTPA SOUTH DUE TO TIGHTER
EASTERLY GRADIENT...BUT EVENTUALLY IT WILL DEVELOP. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL INTERACT WITH THE WESTWARD MOVING EAST COAST BOUNDARY AND RESULT
IN HIGH EVENING POPS FOR MY COASTAL ZONES. WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY
AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT...SOME STRONG STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.

TONIGHT...BOUNDARY COLLISION CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE IT FINALLY MOVES WEST INTO THE GULF AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATES LATE TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY (MID AND HIGH VARIETY
CLOUDS) LINGERING OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM...MODELS AGAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER
WITH RESPECT TO OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES. CLOSED UPPER LOW
NOW OVER EASTERN MO WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER WEST AS THE LARGE
ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WEST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC SOUTH TO FL.
THROUGH FRIDAY. EASTERLY WAVE NOW OFF THE SE FL COAST IS PROGD BY
MODELS TO DRIFT EVER SO SLOWLY W-NWWD ACROSS THE STATE AND INTO
THE GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL KEEP PROSPECTS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS QUITE HIGH THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
THE BEST AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS CONTINUING OVER MY COASTAL ZONES
AS EASTERLY STEERING FLOW CONTINUES. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN
VERY CLOSE...SO A BLEND SHOULD SUFFICE IN MOST ZONES.

EXTENDED...LATEST AVN RUN SHOWS SOME LOWER PW'S MOVING INTO THE FA
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE
AND HAS BACKED OFF ON MORE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING PROGD TO MOVE INTO THE
FA FROM THE EAST AHEAD OF TUTT CELL APPROACHING THE BAHAMAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK...SO PLAN TO KEEP POPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO-LEVELS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

MARINE...EAST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST CYCLE. WIND AND SEA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH NO HIGHLIGHTS...THOUGH I WILL ADVERTISE HIGHER WIND AND
SEAS NEAR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS
TPA TT 074/090 074/090 5756
FMY TT 073/092 073/091 5756

.TBW...NONE.

MCMICHAEL

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-272330-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1118 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2001

...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL
RESULT IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVES WEST. BY MID AFTERNOON THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP
AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST. AS THE EAST SEA BREEZE INTERACTS WITH
THE WEST COAST BOUNDARY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL
FIRE OFF OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS WHERE THE BEST AREAL COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL RESIDE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY
STRONG.

AT THE PRESENT TIME THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...AND
HAIL.

RESIDENTS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
SHOULD BE ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. IF
THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR LOCATION...MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY.

MARINERS OPERATING ON THE GULF WATERS SHOULD ALSO BE ALERT TO STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL WIND GUSTS ABOVE 35 KNOTS...
ROUGH SEAS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS. AT THE FIRST
SIGN OF THREATENING WEATHER SEEK A SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. IF
CAUGHT IN OPEN WATERS...GO BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE AND STAY AWAY
FROM ALL UNGROUNDED METAL OBJECTS.

MCMICHAEL