Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
340 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2001

** WILL NEGLECT PREVIOUS THINKING OF LOW POPS OVER WESTERN ZONES FOR
TODAY. JUST NOTICED THIN BUT SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING SE ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SEE
REVISED FIRST PERIOD POPS BELOW. **

AS EXPECTED THE LINE OF STORMS WEAKENED AS IT MOVED FROM THE
PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN BIG BEND. HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL GETTING
INDICATIONS FROM RADAR OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HAVE BEEN BUSY WITH
A FEW WARNINGS AND PHONE CALLS. CURRENTLY (0730Z) WE HAVE A TORNADO
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR LEON COUNTY FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO JUST SOUTH
OF THE AIRPORT MOVING NORTHEAST. ALL THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT ACCORDING TO THE 07Z
MSAS ANALYSIS EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN SOUTHWEST
FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE TO NEAR NEW ORLEANS.

MODELS: STRONG SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LIFTS RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH DE-AMPLIFYING AND ALL THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SWEEPING EAST
OF MY FA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES TONIGHT TO NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT
WHICH ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
AT THE SURFACE...MODELS ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSING THOUGH THE CWA AND PLACE IT ON A LINE
ROUGHLY FROM ASHEVILLE TO TALLAHASSEE AT 18Z...THEN NEAR A
JACKSONVILLE TO CEDAR KEY LINE BY 00Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. FOLLOWED BY A
REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY AIR LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
AT LEAST MID WEEK.

ZFP: WILL TAPER POPS FROM WEST TO EAST BASED ON LATEST LOOK AT RADAR
COVERAGE AT RELEASE TIME. UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES...THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEHIND THE WEAKENING SQUALL LINE. BUT I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH AND WILL
KEEP LOW POPS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. NO MENTION OF POPS BEYOND THE
FIRST PERIOD. FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF MAV/FWC GUIDANCE.

MARINE: BUOYS ARE NOW REPORTING 8 TO 9 FOOT SEAS...AND SCA
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS SLACKEN AFTER WIND SHIFT...BUT AT LEAST SCEC
IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY...UNLESS SEAS REMAIN ABOVE
THRESHOLD.

FIRE WX: NO CONCERNS UNTIL POSSIBLY TUESDAY.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

TLH 082/057 081/052 6000
PFN 082/062 079/059 5000
DHN 082/056 079/056 5000
ABY 081/053 078/051 6000
VLD 083/058 082/055 7000

.TLH...
.AL...NONE.
.GA...NONE.
.FL...SCA GMZ750-755-770-775.

BARRY

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ750-
755-770-775-141015-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
600 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2001

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SQUALL LINE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE ENTIRE
REGION TODAY. ALTHOUGH ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG...NO
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT UNTIL AT LEAST THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20 KNOTS ALONG WITH SEAS ABOVE 7
FEET. OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT ARE ENCOURAGED TO REMAIN IN PORT
UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE VIA OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/
OR LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO.

BARRY