Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 AM EST THU MAR 15 2001

...TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 8 AM
EST (7 AM CST)

STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED EWD TO VCNTY OF PENSACOLA
WITH MAIN SQUALL LINE FROM DESTIN NE THRU HOLMES INTO HENRY COUNTY
ALA AND THEN NEWD. UPSTREAM COLD FRONT ACROSS SCNTRL PLAINS.
SQUALL LINE HAS BEGUN TO RAPIDLY ACCELERATE MOVING EWD AROUND 45
MPH. WARM SECTOR HAS MOVED INLAND INTENSIFYING AREA CONVECTION AND
THIS THREAT WILL SPREAD INLAND. DEW POINTS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED E OF LOW AND INTO OUR CWA LAST FEW HOURS. LINE EXPECTED TO
LIFT NE INTO SRN GA B4 SUNRISE AND INTO NRN SECTIONS CWA AFTER
SUNRISE UNDER INFLU OF RRQ PUSH OF H25 JET AND STG H85
INFLOW/LOW/MID LVL CNVGNC. OVER THE SHORT TERM THIS PROVIDES AN
JUICY ENVIRONMENT FOR LOCAL SEVERE WX.

AFTER SUNRISE...SRN BRANCH UPPER LOW IN LWR MS VALLEY DAMPENS OUT AS
IT LIFTS NE AHEAD OF A NEWLY FORMED CLOSED LOW IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THUS E COAST UPPER TROF WILL DEAMPLIFY AND DYNAMICS WILL
NOTICEABLY DECREASE FROM S TO N AS LINE MOVE EWD DURING MORNING
HOURS. SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY LIFTS NE TO VCNTY MID ATLC STATES BY
TONIGHT. MAIN SEVERE WX THREAT AND HIGHEST POPS IS PREDAWN HOURS
UNTIL AROUND 14Z FROM SW TO NE. SPC KEEPS LOCAL AREA IN SLIGHT RISK
TODAY. BEHIND SQUALL LINGERING CLOUDS AND PCPN BUT SEVERE THREAT TO
END.

THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN ZFP PACKAGE WITH 100 PCT POPS E HALF AND
90 PCT POPS W HALF...MAINLY MORNING WITH PRECIP AND THEN CLOUDS
DECREASING FROM W TO E ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONT
WORDING OF "SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH HEVY RAIN". BREEZY AND
GUSTY SW WINDS VEERING TO OFFSHORE AFTER WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH LCL AREA IN WARM SECTOR...AFTERNOON
MAXS SHUD REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM DESPITE CLOUD COVER.

COLD FRONT TO EJECT SWD INTO NCNTRL FLORIDA PENINSULA TOMORROW WITH
DRY AIR RAPIDLY FILTERING BEHIND AND ACROSS OUR CWA. SATELLITE AND
TIME HGHT X-SECTIONS SUGGEST SOME HI JET CIRRUS OTHERWISE FAIR WX.
NEXT BOUNDARY EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT WILL
KEEP CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.

MARINE: LCL GRADIENTS CONT TO TIGHTEN AHEAD AND ALONG SQUALL LINE.
LATEST BUOY AND C-MAN STATION INDICATE 15-20 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND 20
TO 25 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH HIER GUSTS. SEAS 4-5 FEET NEARSHORE 5-7
FEET OFFSHORE SO SCA LUKS GOOD ALL WATERS. BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE
OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAILS.

FIRE WEATHER:NO CONCERNS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
TLH 077 056 075 047 +300
PFN 073 058 070 051 +200
DHN 075 055 070 046 +200<
ABY 076 055 074 047 +200
VLD 079 055 077 050 +200

.TLH...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...SCA DESTIN-APALACHICOLA-SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO 60 MN.

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FLZ014>019-026>029-034-GAZ129>131-146>148-157>161-GMZ755-775-151800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
710 AM EST THU MAR 15 2001

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR ALL OF
FOR MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND THE ADJACENT WATERS...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN FLORIDA...GULF...GADSDEN...LIBERTY...FRANKLIN...LEON...WAKULLA...
JEFFERSON...MADISON...TAYLOR...DIXIE...AND LAFAYETTE.

IN GEORGIA...MITCHELL...GRADY...LEE...WORTH...COLQUITT...THOMAS...
TURNER...TIFT...COOK...BROOKS...BEN HILL...IRWIN...BERRIEN...
LANIER...AND LOWNDES.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DAMAGING TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER... THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO 50
MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

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