Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
430 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2001

...UPDATED FOR TORNADO WATCH #45 TO COVER SAME AREA AS TORNADO
WATCH #43 UNTIL 10 PM EST/ 9PM CST...

MODELS: MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER AND LOWER
LEVEL FEATURES. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TROUGH AXIS MOVING TO THE EASTERN GULF
BY 00Z MON. MEANWHILE...A DEEP UPPER VORTEX JUST NORTH OF NEW
ENGLAND RETROGRADES TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION 00Z MON THEN DROPS
SOUTHWARD DEEPENING THE TROUGH ALONG EASTERN U.S. AS THE AXIS
CONTINUES TO SWING FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
12Z MON. THE AVN SHOWS THE UPPER VORTEX PRACTICALLY COMPLETING A
LOOP DROPPING IT SOUTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z TUE
THEN LIFTING TO JUST SOUTH OF NEW FOUNDLAND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TAKE LOW OVER SOUTHERN LA AND DEEPEN IT AS
IT MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE 48 HOUR POSITION NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE ETA AND AVN ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH WITH THE NGM A LITTLE WEAKER AND SLIGHTLY TO
THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE VA/NC COAST. IN THE SHORT TERM...SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING AND RACING EASTWARD. SPC HAS
OUR ENTIRE CWA HIGHLIGHTED FOR MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK /SWODY1/ FOR
DETAILS AND REASONING. NEEDLESS TO SAY CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT FOR
ALL ZONES WITH APPROPRIATE SEVERE WEATHER WORDING. PRECIP MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING
CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH WINDS BECOMING BRISK FROM
THE WEST AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SKIES MAY NOT
COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AS MODELS SHOW DEEP WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE EXTENDING DOWN THE GULF AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO WIND UP
AND LIFT NORTHEAST. IN ANY CASE...A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR ON MONDAY AS
WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AHEAD...FREEZING TEMPERATURES A
GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

EXTENDED: DID NOT LOOK TO MUCH AT THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE
A GRADUAL WARMUP BEGINS MID-WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ON
FRIDAY WITH CLEARING ON SATURDAY.

MARINE: CURRENTLY WINDS ARE SUSTAINED ABOVE 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
APPROACHING 7 FEET AND A SCA IS IN EFFECT. MODELS SHOW WINDS AND
SEAS CONTINUING TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHILE
VEERING FROM SOUTH TO WEST. CURRENT FORECAST AND GUIDANCE INDICATES
WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
AROUND 9 OR 10 FEET. WINDS WILL BE WEST ON SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS
SUSTAINED NEAR 25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING UP TO 11 FEET.

FIRE WEATHER: NO CONCERNS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK ON SUNDAY BUT MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL STILL BE TOO HIGH.

THANKS TBW FOR THE COORDINATION.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
TLH 065/071 044/060 9200
PFN 063/068 046/061 9-00
DHN 058/062 040/061 9-00
ABY 060/067 042/059 9200
VLD 066/073 043/060 9400

.TLH...
AL...TORNADO WATCH #45 UNTIL 9 PM CST.
GA...NONE.
FL...TORNADO WATCH #45 UNTIL 9 PM CST FOR GMZ750 AND ALL PANHANDLE
     ZONES EXCEPT GULF.
     SMCA GMZ750-755-770-775

FOR A LIST OF COMMONLY USED ACRONYMS AND CONTRACTIONS...SEE OUR WEB
PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/TLH/CONTRACTIONS.HTML.

BARRY

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>013-GMZ750-040300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
400 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2001

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE EFFECTIVE
UNTIL 9 PM CST...

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
IN ALABAMA...COFFEE...GENEVA...DALE...HENRY...AND HOUSTON.
IN FLORIDA...WALTON...HOLMES...WASHINGTON...CALHOUN...BAY...AND
JACKSON.

TORNADOES...HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEhVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

17-GOULD