Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
245 PM MDT TUE JUL 03 2001

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.  THIS WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE ACROSS UTAH WITH
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING EACH DAY.  IT WILL ALSO CAUSE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO COOL A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY.

DISCUSSION...HIGH CENTER FORECAST TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  THIS TURNS THE FLOW OVER OUR AREA
SOUTHERLY BY TOMORROW AND IT STAYS THAT WAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE
RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER WESTERN UT STARTING
TOMORROW AND SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA LATER
IN THE WEEK.  THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR TOMORROW IS STABILITY.
LIFTED INDEX FORECASTS STILL LOOK A LITTLE STABLE OVER THE NORTH BUT
DO GET UNSTABLE IN THE SOUTH.  BUT EVEN TODAY THE HIGH ELEVATIONS
ARE TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF WESTERN UT AND IT SHOULD
GET EASIER WITH THE INCREASING AND THUS DEEPER MOISTURE PATTERN.
FORECASTS GENERALLY PLAY THIS TREND SO THERE WONT BE ANY BIG CHANGES
BUT WILL PROBABLY UP THE PROBABILITY SLIGHTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
ZONES FOR TOMORROW.  WILL ALSO BACK OFF ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A
BIT BOTH BECAUSE THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME COOLING /700MB TEMPERATURES
AT SLC DOWN OVER 3 DEG C BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/ AND BECAUSE THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AS
ANVILS SPREAD OFF THE CONVECTION.  THE TREND WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
WITH PROBABILITIES INCREASING AND TEMPERATURES DRIFTING DOWN A FEW
DEGREES.

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS VERY ACTIVITY.  THE AVN HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A STRONG MONSOONAL PUSH SHIFTING
OVER WESTERN UT AS THE HIGH CENTER CONTINUES EAST CLEAR INTO OK.
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LIKELY AT LEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN PART OF UT BY SATURDAY.  THERE IS A SHORTWAVE
INDICATED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THAT APPEARS TO BE THE
REMAINS OF THE EASTERLY WAVE THAT IS MOVING WEST ACROSS BAJA NOW.
THERE ARE OTHER SHORTWAVES INDICATED BY THE MODELS BEFORE THAT.
WHILE TIMING AND TRACK OF SHORTWAVES THAT FAR OUT IS QUESTIONABLE AT
BEST...THE IDEA OF SOME EMBEDDED IMPULSES IS REASONABLE.  THAT WOULD
RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND LOWER AIR MASS
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE TO BRING MAXES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BUT
COULD RESULT IN SOME VERY WARM AND POSSIBLY MUGGY NIGHTS.

THEN BY SUNDAY THE FLOW IS TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND BEGINS
DRYING.  WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR SUNDAY FOR
RESIDUAL MOISTURE BUT BY MONDAY/TUESDAY IT LOOKS DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING RAPIDLY AGAIN.

SLC 1223 CDC 3345  SANDERS

.SLC...NONE.