Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
310 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2001

SHORT TERM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND.
SURFACE DRYLINE EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR CWFA.
ALTHOUGH LATEST WSR-88D WIND PROFILE DATA NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE...SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EVIDENT. IN ADDITION...DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL ENHANCE SUPERCELL
FORMATION. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC...A TORNADO WATCH APPEARS
BEST FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWFA. LATER TONIGHT...MODELS BRING WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE BIG COUNTRY AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN
CONCHO VALLEY BY SUNRISE. FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
ADDITIONAL SURFACE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES REFLECT A MIX OF
PERSISTENCE AND GUIDANCE.

EXTENDED...LATE NEXT WEEK...MRF INDICATES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN DRY ON SUNDAY.

ABI 060/075/060/078 3332
SJT 061/080/060/080 3332
JCT 065/080/065/080 3333

.SJT...NONE.

HUBER

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-062115-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1216 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2001

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
A BROWNWOOD TO JUNCTION LINE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

A DRYLINE ALONG A HASKELL TO SWEETWATER TO BIG LAKE LINE WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD TO ABILENE...SAN ANGELO AND SONORA AROUND MID
AFTERNOON. MOIST AIR IS IN PLACE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE.

ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A BROWNWOOD TO JUNCTION LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE EXISTS. THE MAIN
THREAT IS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
THE SUNS HEATING...AND PASSAGE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSLBB. FOR
THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT OKCSPSOKC. FOR THE NORTH
TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT FTWSPSFTW. FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT SATSPSSAT.

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-062300-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
201 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2001

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
A BROWNWOOD TO JUNCTION LINE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

A DRYLINE JUST WEST OF AN THROCKMORTON....ABILENE...SAN ANGELO...
SONORA LINE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A COLEMAN TO BRADY TO JUNCTION LINE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  MOIST AIR IS IN PLACE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE.

ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A BROWNWOOD TO JUNCTION LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE EXISTS. THE MAIN
THREAT IS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
THE SUNS HEATING...AND PASSAGE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSLBB. FOR
THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT OKCSPSOKC. FOR THE NORTH
TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT FTWSPSFTW. FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT SATSPSSAT.