Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
225 PM CDT MON APR 16 2001

STRONG ARCTIC FRONT TO BLAST SWRD THRU WEST CNTRL TX TONIGHT...
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE BIG COUNTRY.
EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S/40S ACROSS NE/KS
SO THIS FRONT MEANS BUSINESS. DEWPOINTS AT ABI/SJT/JCT NOW IN THE
UPPER 50S-MID 60S AS LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BACKED TO SELY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING NWRD WILL BE PLENTIFUL LOOKING AT SFC OBS TO OUR
SOUTH AND 12Z KDRT SOUNDING. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT NOW OVER SRN OK
TO MOVE INTO THE BIG COUNTRY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THEN
SURGING SWRD INTO THE NRN EDWARDS PLATEAU/NW HILL COUNTRY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE CNTRL/SRN ZONES STILL LOOK TO GET THE BULK OF THE
SHOWERS/TSTMS WHERE GREATEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE AND WHERE OVERRUNNING OVER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE GREATEST...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
(80-100 PERCENT) THERE. THE ETA CONTINUES TO PAINT THE GREATEST QPF
IN CNTRL/SRN ZONES AS IT HAS DONE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS AND WITH
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES AND FAIRLY
WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT...WILL ADD MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE BIG COUNTRY. OVERRUNNING OVER THE COLD FRONT
OCCURS MAINLY TUE MORNING BEFORE DECREASING...SO WILL CONFINE RAIN
CHANCES TO THAT PERIOD. BRISK NELY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH
STRONG 1032 MB HIGH WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME 20-30 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL ON TUE. MAY SEE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY TUE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVELS DRY. ON WED...SFC LEE TROFFING DEVELOPS
AGAIN AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. THE EROSION OF
THE SHALLOW COLD AIR AND PROXIMITY OF UPPER RIDGE SHOULD PRODUCE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL BLO NORMALS.
DRY/WARMER FOR THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS TX AND
1000-500 MB THICKNESSES RISE INTO THE 5730-5760 METER RANGE. FRI-SUN
LOOK DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND
RELATIVELY HIGH UPPER HEIGHTS PREVAIL. THE MRF IS FORECASTING A
PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS WEST CNTRL TX NEXT
MONDAY. HOWEVER...500 MB COMPARISON WITH THE PREVIOUS MRF RUN USING
THE AWIPS DPROG/DT SHOWS A LARGE VARIATION IN UPPER TROF/SFC FEATURE
POSITIONING...SO WILL NOT ADD RAIN CHANCES OR COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTION FOR
DAY 7.

ABI 045/053/040/069 6200
SJT 051/053/041/070 8600
JCT 055/058/043/069 9600

.SJT...NONE.

RUBIN

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-162300-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
238 PM CDT MON APR 16 2001

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE BIG COUNTRY EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS BY MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE WILL SURGE BACK
NORTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINES WITH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS
HOWEVER WILL BE AFTER 9 PM...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.

ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL EXIST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STERLING
CITY...WINTERS...SAN SABA LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED..

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE
PRODUCT LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
LBBSPSLBB. FOR THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT OKCSPSOKC.
FOR THE NORTH TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT FTWSPSFTW. FOR THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT SATSPSSAT.

04

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-162300-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
241 PM CDT MON APR 16 2001

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE BIG COUNTRY EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS BY MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE WILL SURGE BACK
NORTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINES WITH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS
HOWEVER WILL BE AFTER 9 PM...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.

ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL EXIST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STERLING
CITY...WINTERS...SAN SABA LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED..

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE
PRODUCT LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
LBBSPSLBB. FOR THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT OKCSPSOKC.
FOR THE NORTH TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT FTWSPSFTW. FOR THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT SATSPSSAT.

04