Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1257 PM CDT MON SEP 3 2001

COMPLEX FORECAST SCENARIO SHAPING UP FOR WEST CENTRAL TX THIS
AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MCV OVER NORTHWEST
OK...DRIFTING SSE. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN CDS AND ABI AND MOVING SOUTHEAST.
OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER WEST TX TO THE WEST OF A
COLORADO CITY TO SONORA LINE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED WITH
CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN CWFA. DEWPOINTS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALSO INCREASING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OVER OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACH OF MCV. WITH DRIER AIR IN MID
TO UPPER LEVELS...MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR AND
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STORMS TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL PER SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. WILL SEND
A ZONE UPDATE TO INCREASE POP FOR BIG COUNTRY. WILL LEAVE POP ABOUT
THE SAME ELSEWHERE WHERE GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL ALSO RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD
HEATING WHICH IS TAKING PLACE. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE PREDOMINANT SO WILL
ADJUST IN UPCOMING ZONE UPDATE.

ALSO OF NOTE...BELIEVE THE 12Z ETA MODEL BLOWUP OF CONVECTION OVER OUR
SOUTHERN CWFA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS LIKE A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
PROBLEM. NEVERTHELESS WILL MONITOR.

.SJT...NONE.

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TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-032300-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
206 PM CDT MON SEP 3 2001

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE
THIS EVENING. WITH WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THIS DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY.

WITH A RATHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSLBB. FOR
THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT OKCSPSOKC. FOR THE NORTH
TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT FTWSPSFTW. FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT SATSPSSAT.

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