Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
200 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2001

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE
STILL LINGERING OVER TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST LAMP SURFACE WIND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS WITH SOME
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND NEAR THE RED RIVER. LATEST METAR
DATA SHOWS SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF CWFA.

NEAR TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT SERIES SHOWS MUCH DRIER AIR
AT 700 MB AND ABOVE MOVING OVER TEXAS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...APPEARS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONE OR TWO DEGREES
CELSIUS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH MOVED
ACROSS OUR CWFA A FEW HOURS AGO...MAY BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF EVENING
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE...POPS
NIL. WITH DRIER AIR AND 850 MB WARMING BEGINNING...EXPECT SUNNY
DAYS...CLEAR NIGHTS...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 100 BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED...WILL CONTINUE DRY EXTENDED WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 100...WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

CCF PRELIMS...

ABI 071/097/072/099  00/00/00/00
SJT 072/098/073/100  00/00/00/00
JCT 074/099/073/101  20/00/00/00

.SJT...NONE.

23/HUBER

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-182300-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
230 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2001

...ISOLATED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY THIS EVENING...

AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN OZONA...ELDORADO...MASON LINE.

WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY...STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE. STORMS WILL END IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF THE
SUNS HEATING. DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL PREVENT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ELSEWHERE IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSLBB. FOR
THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT OKCSPSOKC. FOR THE NORTH
TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT FTWSPSFTW. FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT SATSPSSAT.

04

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-182300-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
400 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2001

...ISOLATED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BEST
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IN
THE BIG COUNTRY...AND ALONG INTERSTATE 10 IN THE NORTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. THESE AREAS HAVE HAD THE MOST
AFTERNOON HEATING BY THE SUN.

WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY...STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE. STORMS WILL END IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF THE
SUNS HEATING.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSLBB. FOR
THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT OKCSPSOKC. FOR THE NORTH
TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT FTWSPSFTW. FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT SATSPSSAT.

04