Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
323 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2001

VIGOROUS LATE SEASON UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT
INTO EASTERN CANADA BY SATURDAY. ASSOCIATED TROF AXIS WILL SWING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. IMPRESSIVE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS IS CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. FURTHER SOUTH...ATMOSPHERE OVER WC TX CURRENTLY CAPPED...
DESPITE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 90S/UPPER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO INITIALLY FIRE WEST OF THE PECOS...INTO THE
WESTERN BIG COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST.
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY EVENING...DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SUSTAIN
STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE DEPENDANT ON
AMOUNT OF STORMS THAT INITIALLY DEVELOP OUT WEST UNDER THE STRONG
CAP. WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT OF 13-15 KFT MSL AND WEAK DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH 06Z WILL BE DOWNBURST
WINDS.

WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL DROP INTO WC TX THURSDAY EVENING...BEHIND
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROF. A WEAKER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF IS
PROGGED BY THE ETA TO PASS THROUGH OK THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NW HILL COUNTRY/HEARTLAND ZONES...SLIGHT
CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

TEMPS MODERATE SLIGHTLY BY FRIDAY...WITH WEAK EAST/SOUTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR FRIDAY...NEAR
THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE STALLED FRONT.

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AVN/MRF PROG WEAK EASTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW OVER WC TX. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE FROM THE CENTURY
MARK WE HAVE SEEN MUCH OF RECENTLY.

ABI 076/096/069/091 3121
SJT 076/099/070/093 2121
JCT 075/098/072/093 2131

.SJT...NONE.

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TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-132330-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
119 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2001

...SCATTERED MAINLY NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...

STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SONORA TO
CROSS PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS
FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY.

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSLBB. FOR
THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT OKCSPSOKC. FOR THE NORTH
TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT FTWSPSFTW. FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT SATSPSSAT.

15

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-132330-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
119 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2001

...SCATTERED MAINLY NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...

STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SONORA TO
CROSS PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS
FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY.

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSLBB. FOR
THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT OpKCSPSOKC. FOR THE NORTH
TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT FTWSPSFTW. FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT SATSPSSAT.

15