Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR TORNADO WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
750 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2001

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WAS WEST OF EL
PASO THIS MORNING...MOVING NORTHEAST. DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM AMARILLO
TO LUBBOCK...TO JUST WEST OF MIDLAND TO FT STOCKTON. VAD PROFILE AT
THE KSJT RADAR WAS IMPRESSIVE WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 60 KTS
AT 4000 FT MSL. WHILE NO STORMS WERE IN CWFA AT 9Z...THERE WAS A
GROUP OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER OROGRAPHIC TERRAIN IN THE BIG
BEND...AND THESE COULD MOVE INTO CWA...IF THEY CAN SURVIVE ONCE THEY
LEAVE THE MOUNTAINS.

MOST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT WAS WELL NORTH...EITHER ALONG THE
WARM FRONT IN OKLAHOMA OR WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WAS GREATEST ...IN
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. WILL MONITOR THE STORMS IN THE BIG
BEND...BUT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE BIG COUNTRY THIS
MORNING WHERE THERE IS BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE ON THE DRY LINE.

WINDS WILL BE MAIN STORY TODAY...AND WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. FWC GUIDANCE HAS 30 KTS AT ABILENE
...28 IN SAN ANGELO. AVIATION GUIDANCE EVEN STRONGER...41 KNOTS IN
ABILENE...35 KNOTS IN SAN ANGELO. STRONGLY SUBSIDING AIR BEHIND
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO AT LEAST REACH 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS
NEAR 50 POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CWFA...PARTICULARLY IN
THE BIG COUNTRY. WILL PUT 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE IN THE NORTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND NW HILL COUNTRY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES AT 9Z WERE IN
THE 63 TO 66 DEGREE RANGE. WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
FROM THE WEST WINDS TODAY...THOUGH THIS MAY BE OFFSET BY COOLER AIR
ADVECTING FROM  NEW MEXICO. WENT JUST A BIT WARMER THAN FWC GUIDANCE
...AT 70 DEGREES.

ABI 070/040/065/42 3000
SJT 070/038/068/45 2000
JCT 070/038/070/45 2000

.SJT...WIND ADVISORY ALL ZONES TODAY.

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.......UPDATE FOR THE CURRENT 1ST PERIOD FORECAST........

WILL UPDATE THE CURRENT OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO REFLECT THE SOON TO BE
ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ALSO WILL LOWER POPS AREA WIDE AS
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE/PACIFIC FRONT IS HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME BUSTING THROUGH THE WEAK CAP.

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.......UPDATE FOR THE CURRENT 1ST PERIOD FORECAST........

HAVE UPDATED CURRENT PACKAGE TO REMOVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
WESTERN BIG COUNTY AND TO ADD TORNADO WATCH FOR EASTERN BIG COUNTRY
UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...REMOVED THUNDERSTORM
WORDING FOR CONCHO VALLEY ZONES.

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TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-251530-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
534 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2001

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY...NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY...AND NORTHERN HEARTLAND ALONG THIS
FRONT. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ENCOMPASSES THE AREA NORTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM ROBY TO BALLINGER TO BROWNWOOD.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL END BY MID MORNING AS STABLE AND MUCH
DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED..

THIS OUTLOOK WILL RESUME SCHEDULED ISSUANCE ON MARCH 15 2001.
HOWEVER... THIS OUTLOOK WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED AS NEEDED WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

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