Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
259 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2001

INTERESTING AND ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ACROSS WEST CNTRL
TX. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TONIGHT...MAINLY THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN ZONES...WITH MORE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE ERN ZONES.

TONIGHT...NEARLY SOLID LINES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN PTNS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
S/WV TROF MOVG EWRD ACROSS ERN NM/NRN OLD MEXICO...AND IN AN AREA OF
MID LEVEL DRYING INCREASING INSTABILITIES AND ENHANCING SEVERE TSTM
POTENTIAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE RUNNING 170-200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL ON THE 12Z MAF/DRT SOUNDINGS AND BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...WILL
INCLUDE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE ZONES. AFTER THE
LINES OF TSTMS MOVE THRU THE ZONES THIS EVENING AND THE UPPER WAVE
MOVES FURTHER EWRD...DRYING NOTED ON ETA/AVN WILL PRODUCE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MOIST LOW
LEVELS WILL RETAIN AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS AS THE AVN BEST DEPICTS AROUND 12Z/SAT...AND THE 18Z
MESOETA ALSO DEPICTS AFTER 06Z ON THE MOISTURE/OMEGA PLOTS.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BE QUITE
ACTIVE...THUNDERSTORM WISE...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO ERN CO AND A
SHARP S/WV TROF AXIS SWEEPS INTO NW TX IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE
DRYLINE TO MOVE INTO THE WRN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS...SOME LIKELY SEVERE...TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL CNTYS IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK LOOKS GOOD...
ESPECIALLY WITH MDT RISK AREA. AS THE DRYLINE ADVANCES SLOWLY EWRD
...A SQUALL LINE OF TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN BIG
COUNTRY/HEARTLAND/NW HILL COUNTRY SAT EVENING AND MOVE EAST OF OUR
ZONES NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL HIT POPS HARDEST SAT
NIGHT ACROSS THE ERN ZONES.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS STATES.
THE N-S ORIENTED DRYLINE SHOULD RESIDE SOMEWHERE IN THE CNTRL ZONES
IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE DRYLINE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS
ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF OUR ZONES. COULD SEE A FEW SEVERE TSTMS THIS
DAY...BASED ON EXPECTED CAPE AND SHEAR PROFILES.

MONDAY THRU FRIDAY...12Z AVN/00Z MRF SHOW ANOTHER S/WV TROF MOVING
SWRD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...SENDING A COLD FRONT SWRD ACROSS OUR
ZONES ON MONDAY. WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE PRESENT...WILL CONTINUE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY. THE 12Z AVN NOW SHOWS STRONGER DRYING
FOR TUESDAY THAN THE 00Z MRF RUN DID AS COOL DRIER AIR SETTLES SWRD
ACROSS WEST CNTRL TX...SO WILL REMOVE POPS FROM THE TUESDAY FORECAST.
DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH HEIGHTS IN THE AREA WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY
THRU FRIDAY DRY WITH A WARMING TREND.

ABI 062/081/060/085 6331
SJT 062/084/062/088 634-
JCT 066/083/066/086 7363

.SJT...NONE.

RUBIN

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-042300-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
130 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2001

...THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG A DRYLINE...FROM NEAR OZONA TO
BIG LAKE TO COLORADO CITY TO ROBY...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LINE
OF STORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

WHILE LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...THERE IS SUFFICIENT SHEAR
THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES
AS WELL. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A STERLING CITY...BALLINGER
...BROWNWOOD LINE HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING TORNADOES.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A POTENTIAL THREAT. SOME AREAS COULD
SEE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. AREAS IN THE BIG COUNTRY...
...PARTICULARLY NEAR ABILENE HAVE HAD UP TO 3 INCHES TODAY.
MOTORISTS SHOULD LOOKOUT FOR FLOODED LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND PONDING
ON ROADWAYS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSLBB. FOR
THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT OKCSPSOKC. FOR THE NORTH
TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT FTWSPSFTW. FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT SATSPSSAT.