Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
330 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2001

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS NEAR DALLAS TO GREENVILLE TEXAS AND ARE NOW MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
VERY COLD TOPS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING HARDER TO FIND EARLY SATURDAY BUT
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOWS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MODEL GUIDANCE AT 14/00Z IS SHOWING THESE
COMING TOGETHER OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO OKLAHOMA BY
AFTERNOON. THE FIRST SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY TODAY AND BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ALONG
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE OVER
NORTHWEST SECTIONS AS FRONT MOVES NORTH AND DAYTIME HEATING BUMPS
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 NORTH AND MID 80S SOUTH. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AND A FEW MAY BECOME SEVERE. LATE IN THE DAY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS FARTHER WEST MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST TEXAS SO WILL PUT IN SOME SEVERE IN LATE AND EARLY TONIGHT
FOR THIS AREA. COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WEST TEXAS
SUNDAY MORNING WILL SLOW DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS SECONDARY FRONT MOVES
DOWN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN MONDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

LOOKING AT GUIDANCE VALUES AVN MOS IS MUCH HIGHER THAN NGM TODAY
WILL PUT HIGHEST POPS...LIKELY TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. WILL TAPER RAINFALL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TO
A CHANCE. WITH FRONT STILL AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTHEAST HALF.

SEVERE WEATHER IS A THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH AVN SHOWING CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG ALONG BOUNDARY...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
FROM -4 TO -6 AND HIGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT
NORTH TONIGHT AND THEN BE LESS NUMEROUS TOMORROW AS MOISTURE MOVES
EAST AND FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

SHV 83/67/85/64 5322
MLU 82/66/86/64 4532
TXK 77/64/82/63 8431
TYR 82/67/84/63 5322
LFK 85/69/87/65 3212

.SHV...NONE.

09