Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
404 AM CDT WED APR 11 2001

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS INCLUDE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA AND TIMING THE END OF THE STORMS. OTHER PROBLEM IS STRONG
WINDS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LATEST WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWED STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PUSHED
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. 250MB JET OF 120+KT HAD
ROUNDED THE BASE OF TROUGH AND HAS BEGUN THE PROCESS OF PULLING
THIS SYSTEM NORTHEAST AS A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 11/08Z SHOWED LOW DEEPENING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND LOW HAS ALREADY OCCLUDED. COLD FRONT
HAD BOWED OUT FROM LOW INTO SOUTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND THEN CURVED
INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. DEWPOINTS AT LEAST IN THE MIDDLE 60S WERE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE DEWPOINTS DROPPED OFF INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BEHIND COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND FRONT WERE
SUSTAINED AT 30KTS ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS.

NUMEROUS TORNADO WATCHES HAVE BEEN PLACED INTO EFFECT ALONG THE
LENGTH OF SQUALL LINE THAT WAS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS AS OF 11/0850Z WERE IN EASTCENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
FROM NORTHERN KANSAS TO EASTERN NEBRASKA.

ALL MODELS SHOW INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AS JET PUNCHES INTO MISSOURI
LATER THIS MORNING. FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE AND STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP STORMS ACTIVE AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE CWFA.  THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY 9 AM. THEN
THROUGH THE CENTRAL COUNTIES THROUGH 11 AM...AND THE EASTERN COUNTIES
BY 1 OR 2 PM.

AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ENSUE WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE. DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE...
WILL ALLOW MIXING OF 850MB WINDS OF 40 TO 50KTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
THEREFORE WILL GO WITH WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA TODAY.
ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM TONIGHT AS MIXING WILL END AFTER SUNSET
AND SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN ON FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ON TAIL END OF COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FRONT. THEREFORE THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY.

ADJUSTED EXTENDED BASED ON LATEST MRF RUN. REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
RAIN ON MONDAY AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS IT APPEARS A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ENTER THE PLAINS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

.SGF...
KS...WIND ADVISORY TODAY THRU THIS EVENING
FOR KS ZONES 073-097-101.
MO...WIND ADVISORY TODAY THRU THIS EVENING
FOR MO ZONES 055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

D.STEINMETZ

MOZ093>095-101>104-111700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
557 AM CDT WED APR 11 2001

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 130...IN
EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT WEDNESDAY. THIS TORNADO WATCH INCLUDES THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN MISSOURI:

BARRY...CHRISTIAN...LAWRENCE...MCDONALD...NEWTON...STONE AND TANEY.

SOME CITIES IN THIS TORNADO WATCH INCLUDE BRANSON...MONETT...MOUNT
VERNON...NEOSHO AND OZARK.

A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS...IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER MAY NOT BE IMMDINENT...PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LINDENBERG

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-111800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
605 AM CDT WED APR 11 2001

...TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI...

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
MORNING...

...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THERE IS A THREAT OF TORNADOES UNTIL NOON FOR EXTREME
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THE TORNADO WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...NEWTON...MCDONALD...LAWRENCE...BARRY...CHRISTIAN...
STONE...AND TANEY.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA...TO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS
HAD DEVELOPED FROM SOUTHCENTRAL KANSAS TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
CONTINUED TO SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG
WINDS FROM THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...ALONG WITH GULF MOISTURE...
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE THIS MORNING.

THE STORMS AND THE COLD FRONT WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS OVER WESTERN TEXAS.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEBRASKA BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS
WILL FORCE THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE MISSOURI
OZARKS TODAY. THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE
REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

VERY DRY AIR AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AFTER THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRONG WINDS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ALLOW THESE WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL OCCUR...WITH
SOME GUSTS RANGING FROM 40 TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE LATE
THIS EVENING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

D.STEINMETZ