Severe Thunderstorm Warning 311, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
245 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2001

THE MILD AUTUMN WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM CENTRAL
MISSOURI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  TEMPERATURES HAD CLIMBED INTO
THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE OZARKS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AIRMASS WAS
DESTABILIZING WITH CAPES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG ALONG AN AXIS FROM
ROLLA TO JOPLIN.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AROUND A DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PLACEMENT.
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THE ETA.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE NEAR THE FRONT THIS EVENING
AS MODERATE INSTABILITY INTERACTS WITH INCREASING UPPER FORCING IN
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SAGGING POLAR JET. THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF I-44.  AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW OF WARM
MOIST AIR INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.  LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BUT DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE A
SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT. THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LAKE
OZARKS REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND THE I-44 CORRIDOR
TOWARD DAYBREAK.  SIGNIFICANT DESPARITY BETWEEN MODEL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BUT WILL GO WITH THE MILDER FWC GUIDANCE.

ON FRIDAY...RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL WORK SLOWLY ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE WEST PLAINS VICINITY BY MIDDAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY RECOVER A BIT IN EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BUT
REMAIN NEAR STEADY IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE.  WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE WARMER FWC AND COLDER MAV GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

THE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD ACCELERATE EASTWARD BY
LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS AROUND THE TROUGH.  CLEAR
SKIES...DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S...AND DIMINISHING WINDS
COULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FROST SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS.  THIS HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO AND WILL BE INCLUDED
IN THE ZONES.

IN THE EXTENDED...UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE INTO NEXT
WEEK.  WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SET UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.  A PACIFIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
MAINTAINING THE CHANCE OF RAIN.  MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE
DRY AS PATTERN FLATTENS.

PRELIMINARY FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...
FCSTID = 11
SGF   56  58  35  61 /  70  80  10  10
JLN   55  57  36  64 /  70  80  10  10
UNO   59  64  37  62 /  30  80  30  10
VIH   52  53  33  59 /  80  80  20  10

.SGF...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

FOSTER

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>081-088-089-050400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1047 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2001

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 760 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11
PM. COUNTIES NO LONGER UNDER THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
INCLUDE...

IN MISSOURI:

BARTON...BENTON...CAMDEN...CEDAR...DADE...DALLAS...HICKORY...
JASPER...LACLEDE...MARIES...MILLER...MORGAN...PHELPS...POLK...
PULASKI...ST. CLAIR AND VERNON.

IN KANSAS:

BOURBON...CHEROKEE AND CRAWFORD.

THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL
CONTINUE IN COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 THROUGH 1 AM.

DSA