Severe Thunderstorm Warning 235, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
255 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2001

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE THE FOCUS OF
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM MORNING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LINGERED OVER
MUCH OF THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING SOME RELIEF FROM THE
RECENT HOT SPELL.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS SYSTEM WAS SPARKING
NEW CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS.  BUBBLE HIGH LEFT IN THE
WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS CENTERED BETWEEN SPRINGFIELD AND
WEST PLAINS.

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES UNDERNEATH THE CANADIAN OMEGA BLOCK WILL
SUPPRESS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS WILL ALLOW A
FRONT TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE OZARKS.  MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH FRONTAL POSITION NEXT 48 HOURS.  MESO-ETA HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
CURRENT PRECIPITATION FIELDS.

FOR TONIGHT...SOME WARM AIR/THETA-E ADVECTION PROGGED OVER EASTERN
KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT IMPULSE.
FLOW BETWEEN THE WEAKENING BUBBLE HIGH AND SURFACE WAVE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS MAY ACT TO ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER EASTERN
KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.  THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH
THE SAGGING BOUNDARY TO IGNITE A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATE TONIGHT
SOMEWHERE FROM EASTERN KANSAS TO CENTRAL MISSOURI. HAVE TRENDED RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT.

ON THURSDAY...A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL LIKELY BE MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE OZARKS DURING THE MORNING.  RAIN COOLED AIRMASS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW THE FRONTAL POSITION TO SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE
AREA.  WILL WORD RAIN CHANCES WITH LIKELY...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY MAY BE
TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGING DUE TO
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.  WILL GENERALLY GO WITH LOWER 80S NORTHEAST TO
THE UPPER 80S SOUTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE NOCTURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BEST CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL
BE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI BUT
DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT A CHANCE ANYWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

IN THE EXTENDED...RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE UPPER RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL BRING
RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL RAIN THREAT.

PRELIMINARY FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...
FCSTID = 11
SGF   73  85  72  86 /  30  60  30  30
JLN   74  87  73  87 /  50  60  30  40
UNO   73  85  72  86 /  30  50  30  30
VIH   72  82  70  84 /  50  50  20  30

.SGF...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

FOSTER