Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1201 PM CDT MON APR 2 2001

HAVE UPDATED ZONES AS OF 1135 AM. FIRST TO REMOVE SVR TSTM WATCH
NO. 80 FROM THE SWRN COUNTIES. SECOND...TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE
TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN COOLED AIR. AND THIRD...TO INCRS POPS TO
CATEGORICAL OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA SINCE THERE IS A
LARGE AREA OF SHWRS AND TSTMS TO MOVE ACROSS. KEPT 50 PCT CHC IN THE
WRN AND SWRN COUNTIES.

LATEST UA ANALYSIS SHOWED A PATTERN THAT WILL FAVOR A WARM FRONT TO
EXIST FROM OKLAHOMA TO ARKANSAS. THIS WARM FRONT FITS IN CONCEPTUALLY
WITH WNWRLY UPPER JET...THAT XTNDD FROM IA TO NC/SC. 850MB MSTR WAS
MAXIMIZED OVER NRN AND NERN OK...WITH +12 DWPTS...ALONG WITH SPEED
CNVRGC INTO WARM FRONT. SIMILAR PATTERN OF WAA/MSTR CNVRG EXISTED
AT 700MB.

02/15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED TIGHT DWPT GRADIENT FROM AR TO NERN OK AND
SERN KS...THE DWPT GRADIENT MAGNITUDE WAS 20F DEGREES. OBVIOUSLY SFC
WARM FRONT XTNDD ALG THE SRN EDGE OF DWPT GRADIENT. SFC WARM FRONT
CURVED FROM SRN AR/NERN OK/NRN OK THEN INTO A LOW OVER WRN OK.

500MB ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK SHRT WV THAT XTNDD FROM SERN CO TO SWRN
TX...AT 02/12Z. THIS SHRT WV AIDED THE DVLPMNT OF SHWRS AND TSTMS
SINCE THIS AM.

WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
LOCATION OF THE WNWRLY UPPER JET. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TUES...THINK THAT BEST FCST WOULD
BE TO RELY ON PERSISTENCE...THAT IS...ADDITIONAL SHWRS AND TSTMS
WILL DVLP EITHER JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWFA...OR OVER THE CWFA THIS
AFTN. HWVR THE SVR THREAT WILL BE AT A RELATIVE MINIMUM TODAY...UNTIL
LATE TNGT AND TUEtS AM. THAT IS WHEN NEXT UPPER SHRT WV APPROACHES AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LVL JET INCREASES.

.SGF...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

D.STEINMETZ

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ066-077-088>090-093>095-101>104-030415-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1115 AM CDT MON APR 2 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI CANCELED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND IN
EFFECT UNTIL NOON FOR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...HAS BEEN CANCELED.

HOWEVER... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL OCCUR.  THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS LATER TONIGHT...AND ON TUESDAY.

STAY
ED TUNED TO THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI.

DAVIS/FOSTER

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-031100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT MON APR 2 2001

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS...

THE OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE...ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THE STORMS WILL BE FROM HAIL...UP TO DIME SIZE...AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...TO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
....AND THEN CURVED INTO A LOW OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VERY MOIST AIR
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COLLIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT. WARM...MOIST...AND
UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO FEED ACROSS THE WARM FRONT AND
INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI. THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MOST OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...THE CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONGER FLOW OF
WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
THESE STORMS WOULD MOST LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THE STORMS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...
AND HEAVY RAIN.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...HOWEVER SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PROGRESS TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE DECREASING TOWARDS LATE MORNING. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY.

D.STEINMETZ