Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
220 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2001

SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD THREAT WILL HEADLINE FORECAST CONCERNS
TODAY.

BATCH OF CONVECTION CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING HAS
RESULTED IN SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
WARMING TOPS AND RADAR SUGGEST RAINFALL RATES ARE SLOWING.  NEXT
ROUND OF CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING ACROSS NWRN TX/SWRN OK.  SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING EWD ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY.  DEW
POINTS HAD RISEN INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS ERN TX.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TODAY.  THE AVN IS DEEPER WITH THE SURFACE
LOW WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE MATCHED TO CURRENT ANALYSIS.

FOR TODAY...CURRENT CONVECTION OVER THE AREA WILL DIMINISH THIS
MORNING AS BEST WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS NEWD.  THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL BECOME NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SWINGS INTO THE SRN/CEN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD NERN KS.  INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED 120 KT JET WILL BE IN
PLACE TO PROVIDE STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZE UNDER STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MID-LEVEL DRY PUNCH.
ONLY QUESTION WILL BE EXTENT OF SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING LOWER LIFTED INDICES THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. I AM
CONCERNED ABOUT THE NWD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT BUT IT SHOULD
ACCELERATE NWD LATER THIS MORNING. EVEN IF INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL
THERE IS PLENTY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO COMPENSATE.  WILL CONTINUE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AREA.

STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE SWEEPING OUT OF THE OZARKS THIS
EVENING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.  MAY SEE PERIOD OF VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY NEED
A WIND ADVISORY THIS EVENING.  SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE OZARKS
FOR A MUCH CALMER DAY ON SUNDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...SPLIT FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO MAKE FOR RATHER
COMPLICATED FORECAST.  NEXT SRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY MIDWEEK WHILE COLDER
AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF A NRN STREAM TROUGH.  WILL
CONTINUE TREND OF RAIN TO SNOW IN GOING FORECAST.

PRELIMINARY FORECAST NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...
FCSTID = 11
SGF   62  35  52  29 / 100  50   0  10
JLN   64  36  53  31 / 100  30   0  10
UNO   58  38  52  29 / 100  70   0  10
VIH   60  35  52  28 / 100  70   0  10

.SGF...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY.

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1115 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2001

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1100 PM    SCAMMON                   KS   FLOOD
02/23/01   CHEROKEE                       HIGHWAY 102 AND K7
                                          REPORTED CLOSED DUE TO
                                          HIGH WATER.  CLEM ROAD
                                          EAST OF 69 HIGHWAY ALSO
                                          REPORTED FLOODED.
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS.