Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO INCLUDE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
310 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2001

DIFFICULT FORECAST DUE TO ON GOING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH ALONG
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND CURRENT TRENDS OF CONVECTION SAGGING
FURTHER SOUTH WITH TIME. MAIN CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION IS RELATED
TO UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND 850MB THETA-E RIDGE ORIENTED ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI. NO DISTINCT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES DETECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY
BUILDING SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME AS PER LATEST RADAR INDICATES.

THE FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE RELATED TO MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION THIS
MORNING AND THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT/THURSDAY.

MODELS DO INDICATE WEAK COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI SLOWLY
MOVING SOUTH TODAY...THEN MOVING INTO ARKANSAS BY TONIGHT. SEEMS
THAT MOST OF THE RAINFALL WAS NORTH OF BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THETA-E RIDGE. THIS WEAKENS WITH
TIME AND THE STRONGEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS NORTH AND WEST OF
THE OZARKS...EVEN AS THE MAIN 850MB FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. BELIEVE ATTM THAT FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION WILL START THIS
MORNING...BUT NOT AS STRONG OR WIDESPREAD AS IT HAS BEEN. CURRENT
ZONES HAVE LIKELY...AND THIS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW...BUT MAYBE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WORDING.

LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS MAIN TROUGH AND
850MB WINDS BECOME N/NW...PRECIPITATION WILL END WITH A DRIER AND
COOLER TREND FOR ABOUT 48 HRS BEFORE 500MB RIDGE MOVES BACK IN AND
INCREASES TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD SEASONABLE NORMS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.50 ACROSS
CENTRAL MO AND MAIN STORM MOTION WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING...BELIEVE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN
TIER OF CWA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND uCOORDINATE
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES IF WARRANTED.

.SGF...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM TODAY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A FORT SCOTT
KANSAS TO HERMITAGE...VIENNA MISSOURI LINE.

JLT

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-201800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2001

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND REPEATED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM FORT SCOTT KANSAS...EAST TO
HERMITAGE...CAMDENTON AND VIENNA MISSOURI. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS LIKELY IS THESE AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. DUE TO GREATER HEATING NEAR
THE ARKANSAS BORDER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE INSTABILITY INCREASES. DUE TO
WEAK WIND FIELDS...ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVATED
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.EXTENDED OUTLOOK...
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. MORE HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

JLT