Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
300 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2001

MCS DEVELOPING OVER OH/NRN WV/WRN PA SHOULD DROP SEWD SIMILAR TO
AVN/RUC. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS NW...TAPERING OFF TO HIGH CHC HEADING
SE AND WORD AS MORNING OR MAINLY MORNING. AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE
FA IS VERY WARM & MOIST. THIS TROPICAL TYPE AIRMASS WILL BE TOUGH TO
GET SVR...BUT SHOULD HAVE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS & WILL AT LEAST ADD
THAT TO NW GROUPS.

NEXT MCS IS THE FORECAST PROBLEM. THE FA REMAINS IN A GOOD LOCATION
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE FOR ANOTHER TO TRACK THRU LATE
TONITE OT MON MORN. THE AVN IS THE MOST AGRESSIVE WITH MCS
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT- TO THE POINT IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE
SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK OVERDEVELOPING AN H85/SFC
LOW MON NITE/TUE MORN. I THINK ITS A GOOD IDEA TO HAVE SOME CHC
MENTIONED THOUGH...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE AVN MOS POPS RATHER THAN
THE NON-EXISTENT NGM MOS FOR TONITE/MONDAY- ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS.

ALL LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE COMING TOGETHER TOWARD A FROPA EARLY WED
AS THE EAST COAST TROF DEEPENS. MUCH COOLER AIR SHOULD BE MOVG INTO
THE AREA THU/FRI. WILL CONT THE CHC SHRA/TSRA FOR TUE/WED IN THE
EXTENDED...WITH FAIR WX AFTER. MAY LOWER SOME TEMPS DAYS 6 & 7.

FCSTID = 6
ROA   88  70  89  69 /  60  20  20  10
LYH   85  66  87  66 /  60  10  20  10
DAN   89  71  90  70 /  50  10  20  10
BLF   81  66  83  66 /  70  30  40  20
LWB   80  63  82  63 /  70  20  30  20
BCB   83  65  84  65 /  60  20  30  20
TNB   78  65  81  65 /  60  30  40  20

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

JJ

VAZ011-018>020-WVZ042>045-081100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
535 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2001

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...

AT 535 AM...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING RAPIDLY INTO
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STORMS WAS NEAR
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY...AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE RUPERT...
CLINTONVILLE AND QUINWOOD AREAS BETWEEN 540 AM AND 600 AM. THE STORMS
SHOULD THEN PASS THROUGH THE HINTON AREA AFTER 600 AM...AND REACH
THE LEWISBURG AND UNION AREAS BETWEEN 600 AM AND 630 AM. THE
BLUEFIELD AREA WILL BE AFFECTED BY 700 AM. AS THE STORMS CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTHEAST...THEY WILL ALSO REACH VIRGINIA COUNTIES BORDERING
WEST VIRGINIA BY 700 AM.

THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES...
AND WILL HAVE HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF UP TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES IN
LESS THAN AN HOUR.  THIS WILL CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOOD PROBLEMS OF
WATER ON THE ROADS IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IN ADDITION...BECAUSE OF
THEIR FAST MOVEMENT...THEY MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.

IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE AND THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES...SEEK SAFE
INDOOR SHELTER. MOTORISTS SHOULD WATCH FOR FLOODED ROADWAYS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

JJ